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Wizards Show Progress, Still Learning How to Finish in OT Loss to 76ers

Kyshawn George played another strong game in the Washington Wizards overtime loss to the Philadelphia 76ers

Kyshawn George played another strong game in the Washington Wizards overtime loss to the Philadelphia 76ers

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If you’re going to be one of the NBA’s worst teams, which the Wizards are, there are going to be nights like this one. Oh wait, I used that lede after the last one. Well, it applies to this one too.

For most of the game’s first 46 minutes, the Washington Wizards outplayed the Philadelphia 76ers, who looked every bit the stereotypical team on the second night of a back-to-back.

And then…backup center Adem Bona swatted some shots, Quentin Grimes hit some threes, and Tyrese Maxey did some hero stuff, and the Wizards found themselves in overtime. After leading by as much as 19 in the second half.

Washington even got out to a five-point lead in the extra period, but they kept putting CJ McCollum into stale middle pick-and-roll sets, kept ending up taking (and missing) tough shots, and they finally spit the bit for good and lost by five.

The Lead Tracker on NBA.com does a nice job telling the story.

NBA.com

Even in the loss, the Wizards had many positives, and I’ll get to a few of them that stood out. But there were also a number of things they need to figure out as they try to transition this group from teachable youngsters into good NBA players.

They have to figure out how to defend without fouling so much. Kyshawn George committed five. Four of his teammates had four each. Two had three. Cam Whitmore fouled twice in 13 minutes. The reaching, clutching, grabbing, and lunging lead to the kind of free throw disparity (Wizards had 16 fewer free throw attempts) on display last night. No, the differential was not due to poor officiating.

Someone who plays on the perimeter has to figure out how to execute consistently their force rules. Alex Sarr is an above-average rim protector who’s also pretty good defending switches. He’s someone who can be part of a good defense. George too, if he can cut back on the excessive fouling. They need some defensive up-stepping on the perimeter.

Please stop trying to trap the pick-and-roll ball handler when it’s a guard-guard screen. I don’t think it’s by design. When it’s a guard-guard screen, just switch it and take the new matchup.

Late in games this season, the Wizards have emphasized McCollum and Middleton and predictable actions. I’d rather see them run the offense, incorporate the youngsters and let them have learning opportunities. I’m certain George wants The Smoke. I’m pretty sure Bub Carrington does too.

The Positives

Alex Sarr was very good for most of the night — 31 efficient points, 11 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 steals, 2 blocks. He attacked Joel Embiid with skill, athleticism, and confidence. Things got rough with some turnovers and missed shots late, but it was a strong performance overall.

Another solid all-around performance from George — 20 efficient points, 9 rebounds, 7 assists, 2 steals and a block. Just one turnover. My only “gripe” is the five fouls (one of which was a pointless take foul in the final seconds of the loss).

Marvin Bagley III has nice touch around the basket and is aggressive and strong on the offensive glass.

While there are frustrations that come with seeing mistakes and miscues, this Wizards squad is fun to watch. They play with great attitude and competitiveness, even when they’re getting beat. Seeing overmatched kids who might one day not be overmatched battle is one of the joys of rooting for a rebuilding team.

Four Factors

Below are the four factors that decide wins and losses in basketball — shooting (efg), rebounding (offensive rebounds), ball handling (turnovers), fouling (free throws made).

The four factors are measured by:

eFG% (effective field goal percentage, which accounts for the three-point shot)

OREB% (offensive rebound percentage)

TOV% (turnover percentage — turnovers divided by possessions)

FTM/FGA (free throws made divided by field goal attempts)

In the table below are the four factors using the percentages and rates traditionally presented.

### FOUR FACTORS ### 76ERS ### WIZARDS ### LGAVG

eFG% 53.5% 55.6% 54.2%

OREB% 32.7% 26.0% 26.2%

TOV% 12.3% 13.2% 13.6%

FTM/FGA 0.320 0.140 0.244

PACE 113 101.5

ORTG 123 118 115.0

Stats & Metrics

PPA is my overall production metric, which credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, playmaking, defending) and dings them for things that hurt (missed shots, turnovers, bad defense, fouls).

PPA is a per possession metric designed for larger data sets. In small sample sizes, the numbers can get weird. In PPA, 100 is average, higher is better and replacement level is 45. For a single game, replacement level isn’t much use, and I reiterate the caution about small samples sometimes producing weird results.

POSS is the number of possessions each player was on the floor in this game.

ORTG = offensive rating, which is points produced per individual possessions x 100. League average so far this season is 115.1. Points produced is not the same as points scored. It includes the value of assists and offensive rebounds, as well as sharing credit when receiving an assist.

USG = offensive usage rate. Average is 20%.

ORTG and USG are versions of stats created by former Wizards assistant coach Dean Oliver and modified by me. ORTG is an efficiency measure that accounts for the value of shooting, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. USG includes shooting from the floor and free throw line, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers.

+PTS = “Plus Points” is a measure of the points gained or lost by each player based on their efficiency in this game compared to league average efficiency on the same number of possessions. A player with an offensive rating (points produced per possession x 100) of 100 who uses 20 possessions would produce 20 points. If the league average efficiency is 114, the league — on average — would produced 22.8 points in the same 20 possessions. So, the player in this hypothetical would have a +PTS score of -2.8.

Players are sorted by total production in the game.

### WIZARDS ### MIN ### POSS ### ORTG ### USG ### +PTS ### PPA ### +/-

Alex Sarr 34 73 118 33.6% 0.8 167 3

Kyshawn George 40 86 124 18.8% 1.5 137 -21

Marvin Bagley III 19 40 160 23.2% 4.1 246 -4

Bub Carrington 38 81 133 10.4% 1.6 77 4

Khris Middleton 31 65 116 20.9% 0.2 81 -5

Cam Whitmore 13 28 112 21.7% -0.2 106 -8

CJ McCollum 40 85 110 17.2% -0.8 34 7

Corey Kispert 25 53 102 19.9% -1.4 55 4

Tre Johnson 26 55 97 17.6% -1.8 7 3

Jamir Watkins 0 0 0.0% 0.0 0 -4

Justin Champagnie 0 0 0.0% 0.0 0 -4

### 76ERS ### MIN ### POSS ### ORTG ### USG ### +PTS ### PPA ### +/-

Tyrese Maxey 47 102 124 30.9% 2.8 143 3

Quentin Grimes 39 83 119 21.5% 0.7 160 19

Kelly Oubre Jr. 44 94 120 14.4% 0.6 93 2

Joel Embiid 23 49 124 40.2% 1.8 172 9

Andre Drummond 12 25 177 15.8% 2.4 280 -5

Jabari Walker 6 13 218 28.1% 3.6 480 2

VJ Edgecombe 40 86 110 14.9% -0.6 54 11

Adem Bona 18 37 85 10.4% -1.2 102 5

Trendon Watford 18 39 95 10.5% -0.8 29 7

Justin Edwards 14 30 103 7.2% -0.3 1 -22

Eric Gordon 5 10 0.0% 0.0 0 -6

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