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Mike Tomlin Predicted Pittsburgh Could Run Man Coverage Against Anyone. The Numbers Prove Him…

“When you got guys like Jalen Ramsey and [Darius] Slay, and JPJ [Joey Porter Jr.], man, we can match up and play man-to-man versus anyone.”

That’s what Mike Tomlin touted in July. On paper, his confidence was understandable. Pittsburgh bought big on the secondary, hoping to complete the defense and match up in a pass-happy world, especially in the division.

That plan has failed. Pittsburgh is not manning up against anyone. They are getting beaten by everyone.

The numbers show it.

Our Clayton Eckert supplied Pittsburgh’s data against man coverage this season, including the unit and individual results. As a collective, they are below-average across the board.

Category Results Rank

Attempts 103 T-4th

Comp % 59.2% 18th

YPA 8.2 22nd

QB Rating Against 101.9 22nd

EPA/Play .08 T-16th

If anything, those numbers feel “generous” and are certainly trending in the wrong direction. Facing the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, the Steelers could slip even further. All while being targeted a high amount of times. Which means Pittsburgh is attempting to play plenty of man coverage (not to mention the defense is simply always on the field, more than any other team in football) and are struggling against it.

Individually, things are predictably bad. Here are the top-five leaders in defensive back targets against man coverage.

Player (Targets) YPA QB Rating Against EPA

Darius Slay (18) 9.9 117.6 0.48

Jalen Ramsey (16) 12.6 158.3 1.03

Joey Porter Jr. (14) 5.5 66.7 .03

Brandin Echols (11) 8.9 99.8 0.49

Chuck Clark (5) 13.6 158.3 1.34

Ramsey and Clark are averaging perfect passer ratings in man coverage. Both are allowing an EPA of more than 1, an extremely high number, and at least 12 yards per attempt. Slay is only marginally better, while Echols has also struggled. Porter is the only bright spot, but this chart doesn’t fully take into account his penalties, too. Still, the eye test and metrics show Porter has been the best cornerback Pittsburgh’s had, even if it’s a low bar to clear.

Nothing Pittsburgh is doing is working—man, zone, pressure, specialty coverages—that much is obvious. But the theory of what the Steelers built their offseason around, playing man coverage and all the benefits behind it (more comfortable blitzing, more time for the rush to get him, giving quarterbacks no easy windows), has gone up in smoke. Pittsburgh can’t play man coverage, and Tomlin’s summer bravado looks foolish.

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