Leeds United have had a solid start to the Premier League campaign under Daniel Farke, steering six points clear of relegation as they aim to break the mould of promoted teams heading straight back down. But one underlying statistic shows that Leeds aren’t actually far off a Champions League spot.
Wins over Everton, Wolves and West Ham have dragged Leeds well away from the bottom three in the Premier League.
Further Leeds draws against Newcastle and Bournemouth on home turf have signified a huge improvement on their previous Premier League campaign, and Daniel Farke’s men have begun the campaign in fine form to hopefully muster a survival bid.
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But one underlying statistic has shown that, if they’d had a bit of luck, Leeds would be in the race for a Champions League spot had results gone their way.
Daniel Farke managing Leeds vs Tottenham in the Premier League
Photo by OLI SCARFF/AFP via Getty Images
Leeds would be battling for Champions League qualification if xG table was used
Leeds’ performances have warranted more points than they have on the board, that’s for sure.
According to Understat, the Whites should have won six of their nine games in the Premier League when it comes to expected goals.
With Leeds losing their away clash at Arsenal, as well as Fulham and Wolves on xG, the latter of which they won in reality, it means Daniel Farke’s side have a great home record.
With that in mind, Understat have placed Leeds sixth in the table when it comes to expected points.
Result xG – For xG – Against
Everton, 1-0 W 2.38 0.67
Arsenal, 5-0 L 0.16 2.74
Newcastle, 0-0 D 0.68 0.30
Fulham, 1-0 L 0.83 1.14
Wolves, 3-1 W 0.46 1.57
Bournemouth, 2-2 D 2.05 1.06
Tottenham, 2-1 L 1.48 0.69
Burnley, 2-0 L 2.33 0.51
West Ham, 2-1 W 2.22 0.50
Arsenal, Manchester City, Crystal Palace and Newcastle make up the top four, whilst Manchester United are in fifth on 15.27 expected points.
Leeds are just 0.04 behind them on 15.23, meaning they would be sixth in the Premier League table if games followed expected goals for and expected goals against.
The Whites boast the fourth-best defence in the expected goals against table with 9.18, though they have conceded 14 in reality. Only Wolves boast a worse differential, and if Leeds can mop up their defence to combat that, results could see them fly.
As it stands, they are only five points off fifth, which was enough to qualify for the Champions League last season. Stranger things have happened in the Premier League, as we have seen with Sunderland defying expectations to sit in fourth.
Regis Le Bris, Manager of Sunderland, inspects the pitch prior to the Premier League match between Nottingham Forest and Sunderland at City Ground.
Photo by Cameron Smith/Getty Images
Leeds’ last Champions League campaign almost saw them win the trophy
It’s a long while since Leeds last played in the Champions League.
Back in the 1999-2000 Premier League season, Leeds finished third, allowing them to qualify for the third qualifying round of the European competition.
It was a huge route to get to the latter stages of the tournament. A 3-1 aggregate win over 1860 Munich put them into Group H in the first group stage, where famous wins over AC Milan and Besiktas saw them qualify for the second group stage.
Being placed in a quartet with Real Madrid, Anderlecht and Lazio was no easy task, but they did so with ease despite losing to the Spanish giants twice.
That set up a famous quarter-final with Deportivo La Corona, who they survived a late scare against to edge out the Galician outfit 3-2 on aggregate.
However, the semi-finals were a step too far. A 0-0 home draw to Valencia was followed up by a 3-0 hammering at the Mestalla to cut their dreams short.
Embarking on a couple of UEFA Cup campaigns since hasn’t been enough and it has been 22 years since European nights have graced Elland Road.