FOXBORO — Feels like old times, doesn’t it.
Good football, front and center.
No palace intrigue dominating the conversation.
The Patriots are good again, and life is simple.
Thanks to Drake Maye and Mike Vrabel, the Pats jumped from bad to average, then skipped straight to playoff-caliber in a matter of eight weeks. Now comes the hardest leap in sports: good to great.
And while many in these parts have been carried away by the sweet hysteria of a five-game win streak, let’s put our feet on the ground for a minute.
The Patriots are not Super Bowl contenders. Not yet.
Trouncing the Browns doesn’t crown you a contender. Nor does smashing the Titans, Saints and Panthers. And while history shows crushing bad teams consistently is the strongest indicator of a good team, good isn’t the question anymore.
This is about chasing greatness and, possibly, a championship. Greatness can only be earned by out-running opponents running the same playoff race.
Now, it’s not the Patriots‘ fault their schedule has been packed with slow pokes. But they are entirely responsible for their 1-1 record against teams currently in the playoff picture.
They fumbled a winnable game to the Steelers, then upset the Bills in primetime. That win at Buffalo was reason alone to believe in the Patriots again. And a 6-2 start is not to be dismissed nor diminished.
But come on.
How many opponents did we sneer at during the Brady-Belichick era because they’d won five straight and thought they suddenly belonged with the best of the best? Remember the Texans outfitted in varsity jackets and tough talk? How about the Chargers? Or the Andrew Luck-led Colts?
Granted, those old Patriots teams were better than most, if not all, of today’s Super Bowl contenders. But are you sincerely ready to hoist these Pats next to Kansas City?
Because the Chiefs are certified contenders. So are the Eagles, Lions, Rams and Bills, followed by a stable of dark horses in the Broncos, Buccaneers, Packers and maybe Chargers and Seahawks if you’re feeling generous or squint hard enough after a couple cocktails. Oh, and who could forget the 7-1 Colts, the best team in football by record whose advanced numbers like DVOA and EPA match the eye test?
The Patriots, even with the league’s midseason MVP, don’t belong up there. Vegas agrees. Even in a weak AFC, the Pats own the league’s 12th-best odds of hoisting the Lombardi at a few sportsbooks because true contention is about what you’re doing, and what you’ve done.
So what will it take?
I’ll settle for this: win the next two, and post a winning record once real football arrives after Thanksgiving.
Since we can’t fast-forward to early January, let’s do the Pats the courtesy of assuming they check the second box and coast over their final five games around the holidays; meaning they handle at least one of the Giants, Ravens and Bills, then sweep the Jets and Dolphins to finish the year.
Cool.
That means only the encroaching Falcons and Buccaneers are preventing them from potentially lighting a path — albeit a narrow, foggy, rocky path — to the Promised Land. An 8-2 record is enough for me, considering two more wins will give the Patriots a winning record versus good teams by mid-November, and they will face the playoff-bound Bucs in Tampa Bay next Sunday.
In the meantime, Atlanta’s defense should present another test for Maye this weekend. The Falcons are 10th by defensive DVOA and rate above average by EPA and points allowed. Drilling deeper, they rank among the league leaders in man-to-man coverage called, which is exactly how Cleveland limited Maye for two-plus quarters Sunday.
Tight man coverage remains the best defense in football if you have the requisite talent outside. Atlanta does.
“It’s certainly tough throwing the football against them,” Vrabel said Wednesday. “(Cornerback) A.J. Terrell’s having another fantastic year. (Pro Bowl safety Jessie) Bates, if you make a mistake, it may be a turnover. A lot of young rushers.”
The Falcons also disguise coverage more often than Cleveland does, which might yield a turnover or two. The Browns understood they had to challenge Maye indirectly by beating up his receivers, running backs and offensive line, but too often gave themselves away pre-snap. Atlanta is less likely to make that mistake.
“They make you kind of play on your toes, and I think the biggest thing about them is they move during the cadence, move during the snap,” Maye said. “They do a good job of mixing things up.”
Because Maye is too talented, too smart and playing too well, he eventually broke Cleveland.
Maye, we know, has a chance to chase greatness down one day. But the Patriots?
Time will tell.
Soon.