The Patriots winning streak is tied for the league-high at five games, and the verbal bouquets are out in droves for New England around the NFL.
Although it's all deserved, the conversation around the Patriots is shifting. We know they are a good football team at 6-2, but now it's about hitting their ceiling to become a great team and a true title contender. As much as we enjoy highlighting the positives, there are a few trends that, as the stakes increase, are areas the Patriots might work to improve moving forward.
Offensively, a few stats that stand out are the passing offense against man coverage and Patriots QB Drake Maye's growing number of sacks. Maye is the second-most efficient passer in the NFL against zone coverage in EPA per drop-back (+0.29). However, Maye's efficiency dips slightly to 13th when he faces man coverage (+0.17). As for the sacks, Maye has now taken the second-most sacks (28) and has the second-highest pressure-to-sack rate (26.9%) among qualified quarterbacks.
The Patriots passing offense is still a net-positive against man coverage, and Maye's mobility is a huge a factor, like it was on his 28-yard scramble vs. the Browns, which is probably why opponents only play man coverage on 26.8% of Maye's drop-backs. Plus, OC Josh McDaniels will have man-beaters at the ready like rub routes and will matchup hunt with his backs and tight ends. Maye's play extension skills also make it tough to stick with receivers on extended drop-backs (example: WR DeMario Douglas's 44-yard catch last week).
Still, the Browns had some success playing man coverage. Maye was sacked five times, including a strip-sack, and intercepted against man coverage. The Pats have experienced receivers in Stefon Diggs, Mack Hollins, and their veteran tight end duo, who have great instincts against zone structures. But defeating man coverage is more about receivers creating separation and timing with the quarterback than scheme. Eventually, it'll be interesting to see if defenses challenge the Pats receivers to consistently get open against press coverage.
As for the defense, the Patriots are fourth in scoring defense (18.3 PPG) but are just 28th in pass defense DVOA, which adjusts for the strength of their opponents. The Pats are one of two defenses that rank outside the top-15 in pass DVOA but are a top-10 scoring defense (49ers are the other). Along those same lines, New England ranks last in EPA per play on the opponents' first two drives but improves to second the rest of the game. The question is, is that sustainable against better offenses down the road?
Again, pointing out these trends isn't to rain on Patriots fans' parade. New England is trending toward being a playoff team, but with that comes higher standards, which is what every team wants. Due to their strong performance, we're recalibrating our expectations for the 2025 Patriots.
On Sunday, the Patriots will try to make it six straight wins against the Atlanta Falcons at Gillette Stadium. The Falcons are one of those teams whose record (3-4) doesn't necessarily reflect their roster talent. Atlanta has plenty of star power with RB Bijan Robinson, WR Drake London, TE Kyle Pitts, Pro Bowl RG Chris Lindstrom, and CB A.J. Terrell — talent is not the issue in Atlanta.
Part of the Falcons inconsistencies are injury-related, with starting QB Michael Penix Jr. (knee) and London (hip) missing the Falcons loss to the Dolphins. Obviously, we'll all be monitoring Atlanta's injury report this week. Still, the Falcons are wildly inconsistent. On the one hand, they upset the Bills in a 24-14 win in Week 6, but they've also lost blowouts to Carolina (30-0) and Miami (34-10), two of the worst teams in the NFL.
The Patriots can't take the Falcons lightly due to their roster talent. It's a dangerous group of skill players along with the 10th-ranked defense in DVOA that is great at limiting explosive pass plays. That said, which Falcons team, and which Falcons quarterback, the Patriots get might decide how competitive this game is on Sunday.
Let's break down the schematic chess match between the Patriots and Falcons in Week 9.
**Patriots Offense Key: Utilizing Gap Runs to Find Explosive Plays in a Strength-on-Strength Matchup**
After studying the Falcons this week, their scheme on defense caught the eye more than their offense, which is why the defense is playing above its talent level.