If indeed January 2026 is the moment when Lucas Paqueta’s three-and-a-half year relationship with West Ham United is finally taken to the divorce courts, it does not feel as if there will be a horde of lovers lining the steps ready to embrace the Brazil international.
Of course, there are always interested parties when a footballer of such obvious talent becomes available. But whether there are any willing to pay the colossal fee West Ham United are looking for, well, that is another question entirely.
Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City are long-time admirers. But, two years after that FA charge scuppered Paqueta’s £80 million move to the Etihad, there has never really been any suggestion that City are willing to pick up where they left off in 2023.
Paqueta will not be returning to Flamengo, either. Club insider Sean Whetstone indicated that those reports, a few weeks back, were like linking Erling Haaland with a loan move to the London Stadium.
And, while it is no secret that Lucas Paqueta could have swapped one claret and blue shirt for another in August, Hammers News’ chief football correspondent Graeme Bailey insists that Aston Villa’s offer was ‘some way off’ matching an eye-watering £60 million asking price.
Now, with seldom-seen Liverpool loanee Harvey Elliott clearly not a key part of Unai Emery’s plans, and with The Times now reporting that Paqueta is determined to leave West Ham as soon as the window opens in January, those Aston Villa rumours will inevitably return with a vengeance.
Though, for a variety of reasons, the phrase ‘non-starter’ comes to mind.
Matty Cash, Emi Buendia and Morgan Rogers celebrate during Tottenham Hotspur v Aston Villa - Premier League
Photo by Shaun Brooks – CameraSport via Getty Images
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West Ham United’s Lucas Paqueta looks to have missed Aston Villa chance
For a start, recent reports have claimed that a rejuvenated Morgan Rogers is in advanced talks over a new contract at Villa Park.
While there is a world in which Paqueta and Rogers could co-exist – Villa obviously wanted them both together last summer – the former would ideally prefer to play in the roving number ten role the latter has made his own under Emery.
Then, there is the unexpected revival of Emi Buendia to consider. If Villa had planned to utilise Paqueta in one of their wider midfield roles, alongside Rogers, then that is a position Buendia is now threatening to hold under lock and key.
Buendia, who looked a man destined for the chop at Aston Villa not so long ago, equalled Paqueta’s Premier League goal return with a fabulous winner away at Tottenham Hotspur this month.
He also has more assists in his last four top-flight games – the latest setting up Matty Cash’s thumping strike in Sunday’s 1-0 triumph over Manchester City – than Paqueta has in his last 51 appearances in the competition.
Emi Buendia is outshining Paqueta in the Premier League
Remarkably, for a footballer of his ability and in his position, Paqueta has not provided a single Premier League assist since he set up Michail Antonio in a 4-3 defeat by Newcastle in March 2024.
“He didn’t want to leave. He had the possibility to leave in the transfer window, but he wanted to stay here and take the commitment here,” Emery said, delighted to see Buendia rediscover the form which once made him the club’s £33 million record signing.
“He is showing it every day and every match. We used [his commitment] to get his best energy, commitment and qualities. He is going to be important this year.”
Simply put, on current form, replacing Rogers or Buendia for this version of Lucas Paqueta would be a downgrade for Aston Villa. An expensive one at that, with West Ham refusing to budge on their demands.
“If someone comes in with this asking price, which is around £60 million I am told, then, yeah, he could go,” Bailey said a fortnight ago.
Furthermore, Aston Villa’s Financial Fair Play issues are very well documented. Even presuming they still want to sign Lucas Paqueta – and that feels rather unlikely given Buendia’s form and Rogers’ contract talks – that does not mean they could.
Paqueta may hope to leave West Ham in January. But with a lack of obvious takers, this already has the makings of a rather awkward, and likely-to-go-unresolved, transfer saga.