Let's call a spade a spade. Most Everton fans will have started the season with a sense of optimism that has surely deflated over the last two weeks.
Two league defeats, four losses in six, and no clean sheets since September 13th. It's a far cry from competing for Europe. But how difficult has the fixture calendar been for Everton so far this season?
Back-to-back losses to Pep Guardiola's Manchester City and a Europa League-winning Tottenham Hotspur are not to be snuffed at. It is worth factoring in FDR, or Fixture Difficulty Rating, when assessing the first 9 weeks of Premier League football.
FDR: How it works
Fixture Difficulty Rating is a common statistic used in FPL, or Fantasy Premier League. It's a way of determining if FPL managers should avoid selecting players from a certain club, or lean in on players who have an easy fixture schedule.
FDR analyses the difficulty of each team's fixture from a grade point of 1 to 5. It was built with an algorithm that considers key factors like home and away form, goalscoring, and defensive records.
Everton's Fixture Difficulty
On analysis of Everton's first 9 weeks of Premier League games, Everton places 13th in fixture difficulty so far this season, according to FootyLabs.
While the Toffees are accurately placed based on results, a team like Liverpool are top of the table in fixture difficulty, meaning they've had the easiest run. However, the Reds find themselves 7th in the Premier League table.
Unsurprisingly, away fixtures at Liverpool and Manchester City proved to be the most difficult. Both resulted in Everton defeats. The home win against Crystal Palace was statistically categorised as the easiest game in FDR so far this season.
Can Everton break the top 10 soon?
Everton have 10 games left in 2025 in the Premier League. According to FDR analysis, the outlook is not so bright. FootyLabs places Everton in 15th position in terms of fixture difficulty for these 10 games. If the stats are anything to go by, it's predicting 1 win from 10.
There's an even split of matches against the traditional 'big six' with trips to Manchester United and Chelsea on the horizon, and a home fixture against Arsenal. FDR predicts a defeat away to Bournemouth and four points from a home and away leg against Nottingham Forest.
Given how competitive the middle-tier of the Premier League table has been with teams like Aston Villa and Brentford finding form, one win from 10 would likely not be enough to break into the top-half of the table.
Room for FDR optimism
There is a statistical-based grain of salt to take with these FDR results. It doesn't factor in injuries, for example, or fatigue based on European games. It's something Everton will hope to capitalise on against teams like Newcastle and Nottingham Forest.
Everton's positive start to the season can be attributed to a strong start at the Hill Dickinson. If the Tottenham game was a blip on the radar, fans will hope for three points from the visits of Fulham, Newcastle, and Nottingham Forest.
Trips to Sunderland and Burnley, which initially appeared to be easy fixtures at the start of the season, may prove more challenging than anticipated. However, a win away from home on Monday against Sunderland could spark a positive run to end 2025.