Saturday’s Premier League action features a huge London derby at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, with Thomas Frank’s men hoping to go second in the table. We look ahead to the game with our Tottenham vs Chelsea prediction and preview.
Tottenham vs Chelsea: The Key Stats
The Opta supercomputer struggles to separate these London rivals, with Chelsea’s 40.4% win probability making them slight favourites over Tottenham (33.9%).
Chelsea have earned more victories at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium than any other visiting side, winning on five of six Premier League trips there.
Tottenham have as many victories in nine league games under Thomas Frank (five) as they managed in their final 26 matches under Ange Postecoglou.
Whisper it quietly, but could Arsenal’s main rivals for the Premier League title be their closest neighbours?
With Liverpool’s downturn morphing into a full-blown crisis and Manchester City still alternating between the sublime and the frustrating, Arsenal hold a four-point advantage at the summit ahead of Matchday 10 and are assigned a 68.2% chance of winning the title by the Opta supercomputer.
Now, the supercomputer does not hold much faith in Tottenham’s title hopes, which are rated at just 1.1%, but a victory over Chelsea would ensure Thomas Frank’s side end Saturday second in the table.
They sit five points behind the Gunners, and one off Bournemouth – who visit Man City on Sunday – following last week’s 3-0 win at Everton, which made them the first visiting team to take three points at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
Micky van de Ven netted twice from corners in that game, becoming the first Spurs defender to score a brace in a Premier League match since Jan Vertonghen in March 2013 against Liverpool.
The Dutchman’s next Premier League appearance will be his 50th in the competition, and Spurs have averaged 1.7 points per game when he’s been involved since his arrival in 2023, compared to just 1.1 without him.
Five of Spurs’ 17 Premier League goals this season have come via headers (29.4%), with all spread across just two games – Pape Matar Sarr and Lucas Begvall versus West Ham, Van de Ven (twice) and Sarr against Everton. It is Spurs’ highest percentage of goals to come via headers in a Premier League season since 1998-99 (16/47, 34%), with Frank already making them a far tougher proposition.
Tottenham shot map PL 2025-26 After MD9
Only Arsenal (7) and Chelsea (6) have scored more Premier League goals from corners this season than Tottenham (5), while in the last two seasons only the Gunners (21) have more than Spurs (15).
Frank has managed five wins in his nine Premier League games at the helm (D2 L2), as many victories as Ange Postecoglou recorded in his final 26 games at the club (D4 L17).
But if they are to stay the course in the top-four race or make a surprise push for the title, Spurs must improve at home. They have won 13 of their 17 points this season on the road, with their only home points coming via a 3-0 win over Burnley and a 1-1 draw with Wolves thanks to a stoppage-time equaliser. Bournemouth and Aston Villa have already won at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium this campaign.
Tottenham’s Progress
While Spurs exited the EFL Cup in the fourth round on Wednesday, losing 2-0 to holders Newcastle United, Chelsea teed up a last-eight tie against Cardiff City, though the manner of their victory over Wolves has done little to quieten criticism of Enzo Maresca.
Having gone 3-0 up via first-half goals from Andrey Santos, Tyrique George and Estêvão, a much-changed Chelsea team were pegged back to 3-2 and 4-3 late on, with Jamie Gittens‘ spectacular volley proving decisive. They also saw Liam Delap sent off for two bookable offences, meaning he will be suspended this weekend.
Wolves v Chelsea xG race League Cup 2025-26
Chelsea were beaten 2-1 by Sunderland at Stamford Bridge last week, meaning they have lost three of their last five Premier League matches (W2) to sit ninth.
That is more defeats than they suffered in their previous 16 games in the competition (W10 D4 L2), and they could now lose four times within their opening 10 matches. They have only done so twice in the last 30 seasons, in 2015-16 (L5) and 2023-24 (L4).
Like Spurs, Chelsea tend to fare better on the road, winning four of their last seven away Premier League matches (D1 L2), following an eight-match winless run on their travels.
However, the Blues’ two away wins this season have both come against managers who are no longer in the Premier League – 5-1 against Graham Potter’s West Ham and 3-0 against Postecoglou’s Nottingham Forest.
Spurs are missing a number of players, with James Maddison, Dejan Kulusevski, Dominic Solanke, Archie Gray, Destiny Udogie, Ben Davies, Yves Bissouma and Radu Dragusin all ruled out through injury. Wilson Odobert could feature, though, after missing the loss to Newcastle with a side strain.
Chelsea will still be without Cole Palmer on Saturday, but João Pedro, Pedro Neto, Enzo Fernández, Moisés Caicedo and Marc Cucurella should return to their lineup after being benched at Molineux in midweek.
Maresca has called for patience as his young team develops, and excluding own goals, Chelsea’s last 101 Premier League goals have all been scored by players under the age of 30, the eighth-longest run in Premier League history.
Tottenham vs Chelsea Head-to-Head
Spurs have won just one of their last 13 Premier League games against Chelsea (D2 10), losing the last four in a row since a 2-0 home victory in February 2023, when Cristian Stellini was filling in for Antonio Conte in the dugout.
Other than that defeat, Chelsea have won on five of their six Premier League trips to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium – the most wins by any visiting side in the competition.
Frank has lost just two of his eight Premier League games against Chelsea, all with Brentford (W3 D3).
However, all three of his victories against them have come at Stamford Bridge, with the Dane winless in his four home games versus the Blues (D3 L1).
Tottenham vs Chelsea Prediction
The Opta supercomputer is backing Chelsea for this one, but not decisively.
Across our 10,000 pre-match simulations, Chelsea were victorious in 40.4%, with Spurs winning 33.9% and 25.7% finishing level.
And in the supercomputer’s season predictions, Chelsea are assigned a 28.1% chance of finishing in the top four, compared to Spurs’ 18.6%.
Tottenham v Chelsea Opta prediction 2025-26
Tottenham vs Chelsea Predicted Lineups
Tottenham: Guglielmo Vicario, Pedro Porro, Kevin Danso, Micky van de Ven, Djed Spence, João Palhinha, Rodrigo Bentancur, Brennan Johnson, Mohammed Kudus, Xavi Simons, Randal Kolo Muani.
Head coach: Thomas Frank
Chelsea: Robert Sánchez, Reece James, Trevoh Chalobah, Josh Acheampong, Marc Cucurella, Enzo Fernández, Moisés Caicedo, Pedro Neto, João Pedro, Alejandro Garnacho, Marc Guiu.
Head coach: Enzo Maresca
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Premier League Stats Opta
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