We were able to get ahead of the big line move in Falcons-Patriots in last week's column, where we tipped Patriots -2.5 as a good play thinking that a potential win for them against the Browns would be more impressive than the Falcons beating the Dolphins considering how the Dolphins-Browns matchup went the previous week. Well, the Falcons no-showed in Miami with Kirk Cousins at QB, and now the line in this week's game is Patriots -5.5.
We were also able to get some good value on the Bears in Cincinnati, though some of that is tied to Joe Flacco's injury, which has that game at Bears -3 currently when they were laying just 1.5 points on the lookahead. And I mentioned that Broncos-Texans had the chance to tip through zero and move to the Texans being favored with Nico Collins potentially back this week, and while that has happened, a lot of that comes down to the Broncos losing Patrick Surtain II, an angle we couldn't have predicted last week.
What can we predict this week? Well, favorites have rolled the last two weeks, and that has led to some inflated spreads in Week 9 and more potential for some favorites to fall short of expectations, which has the ability to affect their Week 10 spreads as well. Let's take a look at the consensus Week 10 lookahead lines and then share our best bets to lock in early.
Week 10 lookahead lines
Raiders at Broncos (-10.5), 42.5
Falcons vs. Colts (-7) in Berlin, 48.5
Ravens (-3.5) at Vikings, 46.5
Bills (-8.5) at Dolphins, 50
Browns at Jets (-1.5), 38.5
Jaguars at Texans (-3), 41.5
Giants at Bears (-3), 47
Patriots at Buccaneers (-2.5), 47.5
Saints at Panthers (-3.5), 41.5
Cardinals at Seahawks (-6.5), 44.5
Lions (-3.5) at Commanders, 51.5
Rams (-3) at 49ers, 48.5
Steelers at Chargers (-4.5), 46.5
Eagles at Packers (-3), 45.5
Week 10 lookahead picks
Raiders at Broncos
We talked about the Raiders as a potential value last week even though both them and their opponents (the Jaguars) didn't play in Week 8. We are starting to see that game trend below Raiders +3 as it become clearer the Raiders should get back some passing-game reinforcements, and I like their chances of pulling off the upset. Meanwhile, the Broncos have flipped to 'dogs against the Texans in a game with a low-scoring total, and chances are the offense is going to struggle against one of the best defenses in the league. If that happens, it's going to be hard to find anyone that things they should be laying double digits on a short-week here, especially if the Raiders show more life this week than they have in recent weeks without Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers. I wouldn't be surprised if this reopened closer to 7 than where the line currently is.
Ravens at Vikings
This is a line that is just north of a key number, but I still see more potential for it to grow rather than drop to 3 or below. The Ravens play on Thursday, and provided they don't suffer any key injuries in the game, this line is going to come down to how J.J. McCarthy looks in Week 9. I'm not optimistic. The Lions have reinforcements back in their secondary, and the defensive front looked awesome before the Week 8 bye when they shut down the Bucs' offense. We have seven quarters of McCarthy looking shaky and one good quarter against the Bears in Week 1, so the likelihood that he's able to return from a long-term injury and have immediate success seems as unlikely as Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins offense stringing back-to-back great performances together when they're up against a healthy Baltimore defense Thursday.
Falcons vs. Colts in Berlin
The Colts have been rolling through teams this season while facing a relatively easy schedule, but this week brings a tough opponent on paper as they travel to Pittsburgh. If the Steelers can pull off the upset, there will be some questions about whether the Colts are really on the elite tier. Even if they win the game, this line could swing if a healthier Falcons squad has a competitive game against the Patriots as big underdogs. Seven points is a lot to lay in a neutral site game, and I think Atlanta is good enough when healthy that I may only consider the Chiefs and Lions as worthy of being seven points higher in power ratings.
Other notes: We don't typically talk about totals, and both these teams are off this week, but 38.5 seems high for the Browns-Jets matchup considering Dillion Gabriel will be on the road and whoever is at QB for the Jets will be up against a great defense. If it reopens at 38.5, I expect people will move on it quickly and drive it down below the key number of 38 ... The Jaguars-Texans matchup features the two Week 9 opponents of the first game we discussed (Raiders-Broncos), and if those games this week go the way I expect, the Texans may find themselves better than three-point favorites on the reopen.