The Ravens’ mission to defy the odds and make the playoffs despite their brutal 1–5 start to the season is right on schedule.
Behind four touchdown passes from two-time MVP Lamar Jackson in his first game back and 119 rushing yards from Derrick Henry, Baltimore cruised to a 28–6 win over the Dolphins on Thursday night at Hard Rock Stadium.
With their second win in five days, the Ravens improved to 3–5, moving up into a tie for second place in the AFC North with the rival Bengals. Baltimore is now just one win behind the first-place Steelers (4–3), who host the 7–1 Colts on Sunday.
According to NFL.com, the Ravens’ probability to make the playoffs significantly jumped to 60% with the win. Had they lost to Miami, that percentage would have fallen to 37%. The Ravens are now just two wins behind the Chiefs (5–3) for the AFC’s final playoff spot.
The Dolphins, meanwhile, fall to 2–7 while their playoff probability sits at 1%. Had Miami won and improved to 3–6, that number would have slightly risen to 3%.
Following the Ravens’ win Thursday night, here's how the NFL playoff picture looks heading into the weekend (Note: all playoff odds are provided by NFL.com):
SEED TEAM PLAYOFF %
1 Colts (7–1) 95%
2 Patriots (6–2) 86%
3 Broncos (6–2) 79%
4 Steelers (4–3) 50%
5 Bills (5–2) 88%
6 Chargers (5–3) 69%
7 Chiefs (5–3) 82%
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8 Jaguars (4–3) 43%
9 Texans (3–4) 40%
10 Bengals (3–5) 6%
11 Ravens (3–5) 60%
12 Raiders (2–5) 2%
13 Browns (2–6) 3%
14 Dolphins (2–7) 1%
15 Jets (1–7) 1%
16 Titans (1–7) 1%
SEED TEAM PLAYOFF %
1 Packers (5–1–1) 93%
2 Eagles (6–2) 92%
3 Buccaneers (6–2) 91%
4 Seahawks (5–2) 83%
5 Lions (5–2) 84%
6 Rams (5–2) 91%
7 49ers (5–3) 71%
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8 Bears (4–3) 27%
9 Panthers (4–4) 14%
10 Cowboys (3–4–1) 14%
11 Falcons (3–4) 19%
12 Vikings (3–4) 10%
13 Commanders (3–5) 13%
14 Cardinals (2–5) 3%
15 Giants (2–6) 2%
16 Saints (1–7) 1%
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