The most pollyannaish of Dolphins fans might have seen a path to the fringes of wild contention with a win Thursday.
Instead, Thursday’s 28-6 loss to Baltimore, Miami’s seventh defeat in nine games, essentially shuts the tomb on another Dolphins season left for dead.
Left in the rubble are questions with no easy answers. Among them:
▪ With Chop Robinson leaving Thursday’s game with a concussion, should that change the Dolphins’ thinking with Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb before Tuesday’s trade deadline?
ESPN’s Adam Schefter and Dan Grazaino said in recent days that the Dolphins are expected to trade one of them. But part of the thinking there is to create more playing time for Robinson, who said that his drop in snaps this season has made it more difficult to get into a rhythm as a pass rusher.
If the Dolphins trade Phillips or Chubb, then there wouldn’t be much left if Robinson misses times.
Matthew Judon, at the tail end of his career, and special teams player Cameron Goode are the only other outside linebackers on the roster. Perhaps August standout Derrick McClendon might be worth a look.
The feeling here: I wouldn’t trade Phillips for anything less than a third round pick. And even before settling for a third, I would see if there’s a path to an affordable, team-friendly extension this offseason. Phillips had another costly missed sack on Thursday (and has just three for the season), but he’s in the top 20 among edge players in quarterback pressures.
With Chubb, it’s almost impossible to envision him returning at the $19.4 million salary he’s due to make next season; none of that money is guaranteed.
So either Miami tries to get him to take a pay cut for the second consecutive year -- which would lower his $31 million cap hit -- or simply moves on. The Dolphins could wait until the offseason and cut or trade him with a $7.3 million dead money cap hit.
If you can get a mid-round pick now, you probably should do it because of the contract situation next year.
▪ Should the Dolphins play the young guys over the veterans who might give you a better chance of winning?
When a coach’s job is in peril, he almost always plays the guy who gives him the best chance to win.
So it’s difficult to ask Mike McDaniel (and defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver) to give a lot more playing time to cornerbacks Jason Marshall Jr. and Ethan Bonner, or ask them to play defensive tackles Kenneth Grant and Jordan Phillips a lot more and Benito Jones and Matthew Butler a lot less.
And yet, at 2-7, the Dolphins need to know if Grant or Phillips can become quality starters on a defensive line.
They need to know if Marshall can be projected as a starting nickel or boundary corner next season.
They need to know, once and for all, if they have something with Bonner and perhaps even Isaiah Johnson, whose size (6-3) and ball skills intrigue the staff. (The young corners got a chance on Thursday after Rasul Douglas left in the second half with a toe injury.)
The view here: Grant, Phillips, Marshall, Bonner and Dante Trader Jr. need to play, and play a lot.
Whoever’s running the front office in February (whether it’s Grier or someone outside the organization) must determine if any of these players can be projected as heavy-usage players next season. And that information only can be gleaned by them playing.
That’s the problem when you have competing interests of a coach who understandably is trying to save his job and a front office that needs to evaluate the draft picks.
▪ When should owner Stephen Ross make changes?
We’ve talked repeatedly about how Ross needs to be less patient and how the franchise needs an overhaul from the front office on down. On Thursday, he witnessed not only a dismal performance but more than a handful of fans wearing bags over their heads -- the final stage of grief for any disillusioned fan base.
But at this point, it hardly matters whether those changes come now or the day after the season for a few reasons:
With the deficiencies in this roster, the playoffs are realistically out of reach. So it’s not like you’re going to catch proverbial lightning in a bottle with a new coach and sneak in as a wild card. Also, is there anyone on staff who would even be worth evaluating as a head coach?
The concern is whether players start tuning out McDaniel. They didn’t last week. Thursday’s second-half debacle seemed more a case of players losing their spirit after repeated first half mistakes and eventually wilting against a more talented team.
With general manager Chris Grier, keep in mind that executives working with other teams cannot be poached during the season. They have contracts, like coaches do.
Those front office hires are January through April transactions. So unless Miami were to hire a chief executive who’s currently unemployed, it’s not possible to install a new front office - let alone a new scouting staff - during the season.
▪ Should Miami consider trading safety Minkah Fitzpatrick or running back Jaylen Wright?
If the Dolphins dump Wright, they won’t recoup anything close to the third-round pick they gave Philadelphia. Dealing him for a conditional seventh-round pick seems pointless; it would be helpful to see if he can resemble the player who averaged 6.2 yards on 368 college carries at Tennessee.
With Fitzpatrick, the issue is whether he would even want to return if the Dolphins release him rather than paying him $15.6 million next season (none of which is guaranteed).
Dolphins reporters have often remarked about how miserable Fitzpatrick has looked at times amid all the losing, though he has fought the good fight, maintained a positive attitude and insisted - when asked directly - that he’s not dispirited.
If the Dolphins conclude they want him to take a pay cut, and get the sense that he wouldn’t be amenable to doing with that a losing team, they should see if they can get a mid-round pick for him in the next few days.
▪ Do there need to be more consequences for players who commit critical errors?
Absolutely, and this is one of our issues with McDaniel.
Why was right tackle Larry Borom back on the field immediately after his false start turned a 3rd and 1 into a 3rd and 6, triggering a rare public display of rage by McDaniel, before Riley Patterson missed a field goal?
This was a chance for McDaniel to set an example, bench Borom for a series and insert Kendall Lamm.
After all, it’s not like benching Borom for 10 minutes would compromise the on-field product. He entered as the 60th ranked player among 77 tackles, per PFF.
Now should De’Von Achane be benched if he fumbles? Of course not. But as Jimmy Johnson once said, you treat players differently, depending on the quality of the player. And an example could have been made with one of the Dolphins’ mediocre starters.
▪ Should second-year receiver Tahj Washington get another chance after the damaging fumble on his first career catch?
Absolutely.
The juxtaposition of this question with the previous one might seem peculiar, but we don’t endorse life sentences for young players who make a single costly mistake – particularly with one with a skill set that merits further evaluation.
▪ Should rookie No. 3 quarterback Quinn Ewers get a few starts late in the season?
If McDaniel sticks around into December and believes he has a chance to keep his job, it’s difficult to see this happening unless Tagovailoa goes on a turnover binge in the way he unraveled against the Browns.
But it would be in the best interest of the franchise to give Ewers a couple of starts in December. Keep in mind that teams have been fooled before by tantalizing quarterback play in small sample sizes.
But examining Ewers as a starter for a week or two, very late in the season, would provide useful information. And that’s information the Dolphins need if they’re 4-11 (or thereabouts) around Christmas.
Thursday was a full circle moment, in the most sobering of ways.
The rebuild began with the 59-10 loss to Baltimore to open 2019. There have been some fun moments since -- and two playoff berths -- but all in all, it’s depressing to see how little tangible has been accomplished in seven years, and all the work that needs to be done with this roster.