Jalen Hurts is far from a frontrunner to win NFL MVP. But the Eagles’ quarterback is entering the conversation — and could become a legitimate contender in a matter of weeks.
Hurts’ betting odds to win MVP are +2000 on FanDuel. That’s tied for the eighth-best odds in the NFL, behind Patrick Mahomes (+150), Josh Allen (+450), Drake Maye (+550), Matthew Stafford (+1000), Jordan Love (+1000), Jonathan Taylor (+1400) and Jared Goff (+1600).
So Hurts has a ways to go to actually win MVP. But there are reasons to believe Hurts and the Eagles, who are 6-2 and contenders to win back-to-back Super Bowls, can get there.
Let’s take a look at why Hurts is an MVP candidate.
He’s a quarterback: That header might sound facetious. But Hurts is first and foremost a candidate based on his position. The last 12 MVP winners have been quarterbacks. The last time it was a non-QB was when Adrian Peterson rushed for more than 2,000 yards in 2012. You could argue the QB streak should have ended last year when Saquon Barkley did the same; that’s a different conversation for a different day. But bottom line, NFL MVP is a QB award.
Super Bowl contender: More specifically, NFL MVP is an award given to a QB on a really good team. The combined record of the 12 MVPs since Peterson? 156-40. They typically don’t hand this thing out to a QB carrying a surprise playoff team; Cam Newton (2015) and Matt Ryan (2016) were outliers. Recent winners — Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, etc. — have led teams that were contenders, start to finish. That’s what Hurts is doing.
Peak efficiency: Hurts is far from the most prolific QB in the league; his 209.6 passing yards per game ranks 23rd. But his efficiency (15 TDs, one INT) has been elite. He’s also added five rushing TDs; the tush push fatigue might actually hurt his case. But what won’t hurt his case is his passer rating. Hurts’ 114.4 passer rating is the third-best in the league. Eight of the last nine MVPs have had passer ratings ranked inside the top three. Hurts just has to keep it up.
What the future holds: Hurts will be coming off the bye week humming after back-to-back top performances. He had a perfect 158.3 passer rating vs. Minnesota in Week 7 and tied his career high with four passing touchdowns vs. the Giants in Week 8. The schedule gets harder, but that means opportunities against some of the league’s best.
Hurts has primetime games against the Packers and Lions followed by an NFC East showdown at Dallas in Weeks 10, 11 and 12. Hurts, who already beat Mahomes, Stafford and Baker Mayfield, could pick up wins over Love, Goff and Allen in Week 17.
Now, playing like he did against the Chiefs in Week 2 (101 passing yards) won’t catch the attention of voters. But if Hurts plays lights out like he has recently and beats a few more Super Bowl contenders along the way, his MVP candidacy will be difficult to ignore.
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