Newcastle United are ranked as the favourites by the Opta supercomputer when they visit West Ham on Sunday. Look ahead to the game at the London Stadium with our West Ham vs Newcastle prediction and preview.
West Ham vs Newcastle: The Key Stats
The Opta supercomputer rates Newcastle as the favourites, giving them a 51.5% win probability to West Ham’s 25.3%.
Eddie Howe only has more Premier League wins as a manager against Aston Villa than he does versus West Ham.
No team has conceded more goals in the Premier League this season than West Ham (20).
West Ham face the prospect of making unwanted club history if they fail to rectify a dismal home record against Newcastle United in Sunday’s Premier League clash.
The Hammers have won just one of their eight home Premier League games against Newcastle at the London Stadium (L5 D2), and have failed to win any of the past six encounters on home turf.
West Ham have already made their worst start to a Premier League season through nine matches (four points), with their previous worst occurring in the 2006-07 campaign (five points). The Irons have never previously lost as many as eight games in their opening 10 matches of a league season.
A woeful defensive record has been at the heart of West Ham’s troubles and they have conceded the most times in the top flight this season (20). Moreover, they have faced the second-most shots (133) and have the second-worst expected goals against total (15.2). It is the earliest into a league season they have shipped 20 goals since 1967-68 (21 in eight games).
West Ham xG against 2025-26 After MD9
The decision to replace Graham Potter with Nuno Espírito Santo has thus far not yielded an upturn in fortunes, with West Ham drawing the Portuguese coach’s first game before losing the following three. It represents Nuno’s sixth run of three defeats in a row as a Premier League manager (including across clubs), but he has never previously suffered four consecutive losses.
West Ham may find a small crumb of comfort in Newcastle’s recent away record. Eddie Howe’s side are winless in their last seven league matches away from St James’ Park (D4 L3), and have failed to score in four of those. The Magpies last had a longer winless away run between August and December 2021 (nine games).
Howe has won seven Premier League matches against the Hammers (D6 L4), only racking up more victories against Aston Villa (8). He also has three straight wins over Nuno, with those contests producing 16 goals (5.3 on average per game).
Newcastle – who defeated Tottenham 2-0 to reach the EFL Cup quarter-finals on Wednesday – have scored seven of their last 13 Premier League goals in the final 15 minutes of matches, with only one of their previous 34 beforehand being scored in the 76th minute or after. Bruno Guimarães‘ 90th-minute winner against Fulham on matchday nine was their latest winning goal since March 2024, with Harvey Barnes netting against the Hammers.
Guimarães now has three Premier League goals in eight games in 2025-26 for Newcastle, only two fewer than he managed in 38 games last season (5). The midfield ace has ended on the winning side in 19 of the 21 matches he has scored in (90.5%), the sixth-best ratio of any player to score in 20-plus games in Premier League history.
Bruno Guimaraes xG 2025-26 After MD9
Callum Wilson could come up against his ex-employers, which would mark his first-ever Premier League appearance against one of his former clubs. He has played 75 games since 2022-23 for Newcastle and West Ham, but never faced Bournemouth. The only player to have played for three or more clubs and made more appearances than Wilson (245) without facing a former side in Premier League history is Neil Sullivan (247).
Newcastle remain without Tino Livramento and Yoane Wissa for the trip to the capital but Lewis Hall should come back into contention. The Hammers will be without Konstantinos Mavropanos and George Earthy, while it remains to be seen if Niclas Füllkrug is fit to make his return from a hamstring issue.
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West Ham vs Newcastle Head-to-Head
Newcastle have an excellent record at the London Stadium, losing just one of their previous eight Premier League games there (W5 D2).
Indeed, the Magpies are unbeaten in their last six visits to West Ham (W4 D2).
By contrast, the Hammers have managed to rack up just two wins from their last 12 Premier League games against Newcastle (D4 L6).
Both of those victories came away from home at St James’ Park (August 2021, November 2024).
West Ham vs Newcastle Prediction
Newcastle are viewed as the clear favourites to triumph in Sunday’s showdown, with the Opta supercomputer giving the visitors a 51.5% win probability from the 10,000 simulations conducted.
West Ham, meanwhile, are rated as having a 25.3% chance of victory, with the draw a 23.2% shot.
West Ham v Newcastle Opta prediction 2025-26
In terms of the season overall, Newcastle are currently 12th in the actual table and their most likely league position remains a little scattered. As things stand, their highest percentage finish is sixth place (9.9%).
The Hammers’ situation is looking noticeably more dire. They sit 19th in the table and have a 24.4% probability of finishing there at the end of the campaign. Their chances of finishing bottom are 24.5%, while placing 17th and securing survival is rated as a 17.1% shot.
West Ham vs Newcastle Predicted Lineups
West Ham: Alphonse Areola, Jean-Clair Todibo, Max Kilman, Igor Julio, Aaron Wan-Bissaka, El Hadji Malick Diouf, Tomás Soucek, Andy Irving, Crysencio Summerville, Jarrod Bowen, Lucas Paquetá.
Head coach: Nuno Espírito Santo
Newcastle: Nick Pope, Kieran Trippier, Malick Thiaw. Sven Botman, Dan Burn, Lewis Miley, Bruno Guimarães, Joelinton, Jacob Murphy, Anthony Gordon, Nick Woltemade.
Head Coach: Eddie Howe
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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