Strap in, friends, I’m here to predict the improbable and ridiculous on purpose. Bold Predictions: AFC West Edition. If you’re looking for peer-supported certainty, this ain’t it. These are swing-for-it outcomes born from malts & hops and poor life choices. I do look at the schedule and matchup data, if that makes you more comfy. But this goodness comes mostly from the knowledge that the NFL does what it wants – expectations be damned. This is our time… Week 9, it’s a miracle.
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills
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Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) passes the ball against the Washington Commanders during the third quarter of the game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images
Ground Kings Duel: Mahomes and Allen each rush for 50+ and a TD.
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Why it will happen: Both are off-script maestros. Spread looks and motion create light boxes, inviting QB draws and scramble lanes in a high-leverage game. Buffalo’s man/pressure answers can turn their backs, and Mahomes will punish that just like Allen does.
Why it won’t happen: Both defenses can deploy a spy and squeeze escape lanes with disciplined rush lanes. A quick two-score lead for either side lowers scramble volume and shifts to conservative clock management.
Red-Zone-Palooza: Chiefs cash 3+ TDs on 4 or fewer trips inside the 20.
Why it will happen: Condensed splits, option routes to Kelce, Worthy’s speed versus leverage, and Rice’s off-schedule magic give Andy Reid the matchup answers he wants near the goal line. The screen/POP pass menu keeps down-and-distance friendly and the ball out fast.
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Why it won’t happen: Pre-snap penalties and negative runs can force third-and-longs that stall into field goals. Buffalo’s red-zone coverage trades shots for tight windows and rally tackles, shrinking TD efficiency.
Los Angeles Chargers at Tennessee Titans
Oct 23, 2025; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) drops back to pass against the Minnesota Vikings during the first half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images
Immaculate Protection: Chargers allow 0 sacks and convert 50%+ on third down.
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Why it will happen: Quick game, chip help, and moving pockets blunt Tennessee’s rush while Herbert lives in rhythm. A healthy TE/RB checkdown outlet tree keeps the sticks turning on third-and-medium.
Why it won’t happen: Silent-count hiccups on the road invite free runners and drive-killing sacks. If early run stuffs force second-and-long, L.A. drifts into deeper drops and risk.
Deep Trilogy: Herbert throws three TDs of 20+ yards to three different receivers.
Why it will happen: Play-action shot plays versus single-high create isolated posts, seams, and sail routes for McConkey, Keenan, and a third wheel (QJ?) to share explosives. Tennessee’s need to defend the run opens glance/go windows downfield.
Why it won’t happen: If the Titans sit in two-high and rally to tackle, explosives turn into chunk gains without scores. A positive second-half script could tilt L.A. run-heavy and cap deep attempts.
Denver Broncos at Houston Texans
Oct 26, 2025; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos running back J.K. Dobbins (27) runs against the Dallas Cowboys in the first half at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images
Thunder & Lightning Strikes: Dobbins and RJ Harvey combine for 160+ rushing yards and 2 TDs.
Why it will happen: Denver’s mix of duo/zone with pullers fits a ball-control plan that stresses Houston’s edges and linebackers. Sustained drives set up red-zone carries and angle routes that finish in the paint.
Why it won’t happen: If Houston loads the box and wins early downs, Denver faces long yardage and abandons balance. A negative game state forces Bo Nix into higher pass rates and fewer RB touches.
Cover Caps: Broncos allow zero passing TDs and notch 10+ pass breakups.
Why it will happen: Late-rotating quarters and robber looks squeeze intermediate windows while simulated pressure hurries timing. Tackling discipline limits YAC, turning would-be scores into red-zone field goals.
Why it won’t happen: One busted leverage or scramble drill can flip the script instantly. If Houston leans on tempo and quick game, PBUs turn into catches, and the TD lid cracks.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Oct 19, 2025; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Geno Smith (7) passes the ball against the Kansas City Chiefs during the first quarter of the game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images
70% Surgeon: Geno Smith completes 70% with 300+ and engineers two fourth-quarter scoring drives.
Why it will happen: Bye-week self-scout simplifies the menu behind a Jeanty-anchored run threat. Early downs stay on schedule, and late-game two-minute sequencing creates clean throws.
Why it won’t happen: Protection stress and third-and-long force tight-window sideline shots with lower completion odds. If Jacksonville jumps ahead, Vegas gets one-dimensional, and the accuracy floor drops.
Ball Magnet Sunday: Raiders finish +2 in turnovers and start two drives on short fields.
Why it will happen: Emphasis on situational discipline to generate tips and strips, while special teams steal a possession. Short fields convert into confidence and points.
Why it won’t happen: If Vegas chases early, risk tolerance rises and giveaways follow. Jacksonville’s quick-game plan and ball security can starve takeaway chances all afternoon.
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