Written by Matt Stevenson
Here is the xG from the N Forest game, which was reasonably dull with no big chances. Very briefly, AFCB pressured earlier, scored directly from a corner, then doubled the lead with a class finish and sat back comfortably. Our first chance came in the first minute when Kroupi weakly shot. In the 7th minute, Kluivert had a shot blocked (1 in 11 – our highest rated chance) and followed up by Semenyo. Two minutes later, it was another double chance (Scott had one blocked, followed by Tavernier firing over), Forest were offering nothing, although the game had settled down when AFCB went ahead. Tavernier took the corner, Adams nudged the keeper (and you often see fouls given for such contact), who missed the ball and 1-0 to Bournemouth. It was rated nearly 1 in 500, which shows its rarity. Again. The game quietened until Kroupi picked the ball up halfway into Forest’s half, after a good advantage was played by the referee and fired Kluivert-esque into the bottom corner. (rated 1 in 25). Nothing much happened before the break and at half-time, the xG was AFCB 0.48, N Forest 0.12.
The second half wasn’t much better, although AFCB didn’t need to push the game, potentially mindful of the C Palace game. Still, Forest is not as good as Palace. Very little happened, although Forest did create two minor chances in the 76th/77th minute with Awoniyi connecting poorly and then Petrovic pushing a Gibbs-White shot wide, both around the 1 in 12 mark. In the 82nd minute, Brooks shot wide, 1 in 12, although the best chance fell late on to Christie, who tried a fancy flicked pass instead of shooting (so no xG), which was a sign of how comfortable we were. At the final whistle, the xG was AFCB 0.59 N Forest 0.35, with Understat having a slightly bigger margin (AFCB 0.66 N Forest 0.31)
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Man of the Match against Forest
Truffert
Truffert
Vote
Petrovic
Petrovic
Vote
Tavernier
Tavernier
Vote
Kroupi
Kroupi
Vote
Adams
Adams
Vote
Scott
Scott
Vote
Someone else
Someone else
Vote
There was one change from the C Palace game, with Milosavljevic (44) replacing Diakite. It looked like the standard formation; however, Jiminez (20) had a higher average position than Semenyo (24), with the team looking a little lop-sided and drawn towards the left. The first subs were in the 69th minute at 2-0 with Kluivert (19) and Kroupi (22) being replaced by Brooks (7) and Adli (21). It appeared that Tavernier (16) moved from right wing to centre-attacking midfielder, with Brooks wide and Adli playing as the striker. The fact that Adli’s position is relatively deep showed we had sunk back slightly to absorb pressure whilst looking to counterattack. In the 80th minute, Scott (8) was replaced by Christie (10) in a direct swap. In injury time, Tavernier and Semenyo were given micro rests, with Cook (4) and Unal (26) coming on – neither with enough data to get an average position. Unal didn’t get a touch of the ball.
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Truffert had the most touches with 75. Tavernier had most touches in the opposition half (47) and in the final third with 34.
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Senesi attempted most passes with 64. Tavernier made most passes in the opposition’s half (30) and in the final third with 19. We averaged 80% pass completion with Milosavljec (90%) being the highest of the starting 11, followed by Adams (84%) and Scott (83%).
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AFCB players tried to take on a man 14 times, being successful 6 times. Brooks was successful twice from 4 attempts (the highest despite being a second-half sub).
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AFCB attempted 10 crosses, being successful twice (both from Truffert, who only made 2 attempts).
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AFCB had 16 touches in the opposition’s penalty area, with Tavernier having 4. N Forest had 7 touches in our penalty area.
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AFCB created 8 chances (none big). N Forest created 7 chances, none big. Tavernier created three chances.
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We had 13 attempts (none big), noting that chances can be provided after saves, deflections or a defensive error and not created. We hit the target 5 times. N Forest had 8 attempts, none big and hit the target 4 times. Tavernier had 4 attempts.
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The Opta expected goals had Kroupi as most likely to score (0.15), followed by Scott (0.12). For expected assists, Brooks was top with 0.09, followed by Tavernier with 0.08.
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AFCB won 15 of 35 aerial duals. Truffert won 4 from 4, whilst Milosavljevic won 4 from 9.
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AFCB won 7 of 9 tackles. Truffert won 3 from 3.
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Truffert made most defensive actions with 16. He made the most interceptions (4), most recoveries (8), and most clearances (4), with Senesi making the most blocks (2).
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The foul count was AFCB 17, N Forest 7. Adams made 3 fouls, with Jiminez, Tavernier and Truffert being fouled two times each.
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According to Opta, AFCB made no errors leading to a chance.
Your say…
CanadianCherry
We do seem to be outperforming our xG stats, which is great.
However, last season we were wildly underperforming (I remember for a while we were sitting around 8th-ish in the PL table, but our expected position was 3rd). We were incredibly wasteful last season, so I don’t mind us turning things around.
However, if we are generating fewer quality chances, then maybe that is a concern . . . or perhaps it’s just due to the fact we’ve almost never been losing, so haven’t had to create as many chances? – To join the conversation, please click here.