The modern era of football naturally involves a lot of data, and it has not always reflected well on Leeds.
After the 2-0 defeat at Burnley, a supercomputer predicted that Leeds would be relegated, tipping the Whites to finish 18th with 37 points.
Now – however – Daniel Farke is clearly doing something right, as the underlying figures have changed in favour of Leeds.
Leeds now expected to avoid relegation following 2-1 win over West Ham
Opta have revised their prediction for what the Premier League table will look like come May, and the Elland Road faithful should be excited.
As you can see, Leeds are now being backed to achieve survival with a 16th-place finish on 39 points.
Opta believe figures accumulated from the current campaign so far will see Nottingham Forest, West Ham and Wolves suffer relegation, so there is actually confidence in all three promoted sides surviving.
Given what Farke has already achieved this season, this prediction should surprise nobody.
Team xG Goals* xGDiff Shots xG/Shots Rating
Crystal Palace 18.3 12 -6.3 115 0.16 6.76
Liverpool 18.23 16 -2.23 140 0.13 6.67
Manchester United 18.09 13 -5.09 135 0.13 6.62
Arsenal 17.08 16 -1.08 133 0.13 6.82
Manchester City 16.46 15 -1.46 123 0.13 6.85
Brentford 15.96 14 -1.96 96 0.17 6.59
Chelsea 15.59 17 1.41 123 0.13 6.69
Leeds 13.27 9 -4.27 117 0.11 6.53
Newcastle 13.11 9 -4.11 114 0.11 6.65
Bournemouth 12.95 16 3.05 112 0.12 6.72
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Leeds sit eighth in the Premier League for xG (expected goals) and are recording a healthy amount of shots, while 14 goals conceded in nine outings is nothing to be ashamed of – Liverpool, Manchester United and Brentford have done likewise, whereas Brighton have shipped 15.
Additionally, no Premier League side in the last decade have gone down after winning 11 points from the first nine games.
Daniel Farke not giving in to positive omens
When Farke was told about all the positives surrounding his side at the moment in his press conference on Thursday, the German was having none of it.
He retorted: “We are on a good path, but it’s also not a guarantee. If we stopped winning points, 11 points won’t be enough!
“We have to make sure, in the end we need probably nine wins, perhaps even ten. To already be on three and a few draws, it’s good but we have to keep going. In the past (laughs) we were also the first team to not win automatic promotion with 90 points – I’ve never experienced in my life here with Leeds United that we would do anything easy.”
Daniel Farke is not relying on statistics for survival in the Premier League.
Promoted sides tend to stay up with 11 points after 9 matches…. but the Leeds United boss is not resting on his laurels.#LUFC | #BBCFootball pic.twitter.com/7xaPVClDbe
— BBC Sport West Yorkshire (@BBCWYS) October 30, 2025
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That is a sensible outlook.
While there is much for Leeds fans to be proud about at the moment, there is still plenty of work remaining.