suburbangooners.com

A potential tough watch as Burnley to sit in deep

Suburban Gooners Logo Suburban Gooners Logo Match day ten this season brings about yet another familiar challenge to it that we have faced for some years now:

An away day low block.

It used to be a tenet of Premier League football that when teams are at home, they are a little more expansive; their fans urge them to drive forward, the team responds and sometimes as a team like Arsenal that is positive because it affords you more space with which to create openings. That isn’t really the case any more and today’s challenge of overcoming the 2025 Championship Champions is going to be quite the tricky one I suspect. Scott Parker employs a back five and he’ll do so today, with the hope of frustrating us and hitting us on the counting with rapid forwards like Jaidon Anthony. Burnley’s game plan today is to let us have the ball, stay in shape, narrow the pitch and ask our lads to do something special to beat them.

We have to be ready for that as much as the players do, because I don’t think this will be a classic for the ages, not unless we score first and early and that forces them out to us. No, instead, I think this might be a bit of a tough watch and whilst I promised myself to have a non-boozy Saturday today, depending on how turgid the game feels, I might find myself reaching for the Admiral Old J.

Their fans don’t think so though and one forum I had a look at had something like a 90% expectation of a beat down for them, with a couple suggesting there could be a five-niller on the cards.

There’s absolutely no way that happens today. This Burnley team are too well drilled and they will deny Arsenal any space at all in their defensive third of the pitch. It’s why I do wonder if, like last weekend against Palace, we’re going to need to take advantage of a moment of magic to pick up the points.

In terms of team news, Arteta wouldn’t be drawn on Saliba, but given how well Mosquera has played for us this season, if there’s even the slightest of doubts, I think he plays and I am thinking that will be the case today. The rest of the back five picks itself with most of them having been rested from the start in midweek, whilst in midfield I’ll expect to see a return for Zubimendi and Rice. Eze playing 83 minutes in midweek would normally have me thinking that he might get a rest, but given Odegaard is out, Nwaneri played the full 90 and so did Merino, I suspect Ebz continues in that midfield and hopefully he can continue his goalscoring form from last weekend.

Then, up front, it has to be Saka, Gyokeres and Trossard, because with Martinelli, Madueke and Havertz all out, it’s pretty much the only first choice options we have. Even if Martinelli were fit though, this feels more like a Trossard one than one for Gabby. Tight spaces, little green grass to run in to, the need to get into central crowded areas and be dangerous, it feels like that’s what is needed and with Saka and Trossard you have those players.

From a data point of view, the numbers only serve to underline how this one won’t be a classic and will very much be an Arsenal possession-dominant football game. Burnley are bottom of the league for xG, meaning they don’t create many chances. But if we can have some hope, it’s that they do concede goals too, having the fourth worst goals conceded record and the lowest xG differential in the league; so despite me thinking this is going to be a torturous low-scoring affair, by the sounds of it Burnley will give us chances if you look at the numbers. I guess I still have that game against Liverpool at Turf Moor in my head and how Burnley just retreated in to the lowest of blocks. Perhaps in most of their other games against opponents that they fancy their chances with, they’ve been more willing to have a go. But this Arsenal team have shown just how miserly they are and so Parker and his coaching staff might be looking at that and thinking that the best option is to try to low-block the sh*t out of today’s match.

So, what, other interesting stats are there that inform how they will play? well, they’re lowest in the league for crosses into the box, so we don’t have to expect tricky wingers getting in behind their full backs, but they’re top of the league for big switches, so when the ball turns over at the back in their half (they are top of the league in blocks and mid table for winning tackles in their own defensive third), expect them to look for that switched out ball to one of their forwards. But for us I think the aim has to be to try to get more shots off today. That might mean a few more pop shots from the D than we would be used to; feels like a Saka and Eze opportunity, maybe with Trossard too.

There was plenty of other stuff that he said in his press conference that I’ll let you peruse at your own leisure, but I’m also interested at what the pundits have been saying, as well as the Burnley fans and as you’d expect there’s pretty much a full house of Arsenal wins. Sharer has gone for the win for us, Jones Knows has said 2-0 to The Arsenal, Merse has gone for 2-0 too, whilst Sutton has gone for a 1-0, which I’m more inclined to go with.

And hey, that’s all we need right now, because despite some of the media narrative, this is an Arsenal team that have been getting the job done, despite all of the injuries. We need to see this one through and then next weekend away to Sunderland, then as Arteta was talking about returning players after the international break, if we can get some of those attacking players back and firing on all cylinders then I think we can start to look to attack the busy December and Christmas period with some gusto.

Catch you all tomorrow for a de-brief.

Share This Story, Choose Your Platform!

Gooner born in 1982 from Harlow, Essex, now living in Uxbridge. I say what I see - frequently wrong, but hey, it's just an opinion piece, right? Leave a comment and let me know what you think.