Just over two weeks ago, the Pittsburgh Steelers were cruising atop the AFC North at 4-1. Fast forward to now, and the Steelers are still atop the AFC North. However, the Steelers went from cruising altitude to barely above the treetops. You can hear the talons of the Baltimore Ravens scratching ever closer.
Yes, the Steelers still have a winning record. And yes, they still control their own destiny. Unfortunately, the road is much more treacherous. And it all starts with the 7-1 Indianapolis Colts coming to town on Sunday. On Friday’s episode of NFL Live on ESPN, the crew discussed the AFC North situation after the Ravens beat the Miami Dolphins on Thursday night. ESPN NFL researcher and producer Evan Kaplan dove into what ESPN’s analytics have to say about the impact the Colts game has on the Steelers’ AFC North future, and it’s not pretty.
If the Steelers beat the Colts on Sunday, their AFC North odds jump up to 51 percent, making them the slight favorites. And their overall playoff odds increase to 64 percent. But if they lose and drop to .500, their odds to win the division plummet to 35 percent. Their odds to make the playoffs dip below 50 percent, down to 42 percent. Why? Well, according to Kaplan and the ESPN analytics, “Pittsburgh is only favored in three of their remaining 10 games.”
The analytics say Sunday’s game versus the Colts is a must-win for the Steelers. Kaplan even asked former Steelers S Ryan Clark if Sunday’s game is a must-win. And he agreed. He’s just not all that confident that they can do it. And it all comes back to what used to be the strength of the team – the defense.
“The Pittsburgh Steelers’ defense is no longer that vaunted unit that it used to be in the past,” Clark said. “When you look at the second half of that Green Bay Packer game, 20 straight completions for Jordan Love. Emmanuel Wilson able to run out the clock with physicality.
“That just can’t happen, and it normally doesn’t happen in Pittsburgh. And if they don’t change some things, and I mean change things immediately, they’re in trouble. But with the Indianapolis Colts coming into town, offensively, they do all the things that give the Steelers problems.”
The unfortunate reality is that the Steelers’ most important game of the season (at the moment, anyway) is against a high-flying offense featuring two key players at positions that give the Steelers fits. The Colts have rookie TE Tyler Warren, and the Steelers have been one of the absolute worst defenses against tight ends this season. Warren is tied for the fifth-most receptions by a tight end this season (with Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce) at 37. He leads all tight ends with 492 receiving yards. This is going to be a very tough matchup for the Steelers’ defense without S DeShon Elliott. Especially after Packers TE Tucker Kraft caught 7 passes for 143 yards and two touchdowns last Sunday night.
And the Colts also have RB Jonathan Taylor, who leads all running backs with 850 rushing yards this year. He also leads the group with 143 rushing attempts, and he’s the only running back to have at least 10 rushing touchdowns (he has 12).
By all accounts, the Colts are a nightmare matchup for the Steelers’ defense. And it’s coming in what looks like a must-win game halfway through the season. The Steelers need to do something different on defense, as Clark said. But what can they do, and will it be enough?
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