Sunderland U21s v RSCA Futures report and analysis
Sunderland will lose seven players for at least three Premier League games in December
That Sunderland face a significant challenge later this year is by now well established.
When the Africa Cup of Nations begins they will lose seven members of their first-team squad for at least three Premier League games, and potentially six. The vast majority of those are key players in Régis Le Bris's side, whether it is as a regular starter like Noah Sadiki or as an impact substitute like Chemsdine Talbi more recently. Perhaps the prospect is a little less daunting now that Sunderland have started so well, and that players such as Lutsharel Geertruida and Brian Brobbey have emerged as contenders for more regular starts - but it is clearly going to be a crucial phase of the season.
You can read our deep dive on exactly how AFCON will impact Sunderland’s squad here. But what about Sunderland's opponents during that time? Here, we take a closer look at who'll be missing over the course of the tournament...
Sunderland's festive opposition
With the group stages beginning on December 21st and ending on New Year's Eve, any player selected by their country for the tournament will almost certainly miss three Premier League fixtures. In Sunderland's case, that means a trip to face Brighton the weekend before Christmas, and the home fixtures against Leeds United and Manchester City over the festive period.
In truth, those opponents will not be impacted to anywhere near the same extent. Brighton will lose Carlos Baleba, with the midfielder almost certain to be selected by Cameroon. He is a regular starter for Brighton and so will be a big miss, but there are strong alternatives in the experienced James Milner, Diego Gomes (who made his Paraguay debutr in the last international break when replacing Omar Alderete). Brajan Gruda and emerging youngster Charalampos Koustalas. Leeds United will not lose any players during the tournament.
Manchester City will be without forward Omar Marmoush as he represents Egypt, and full back Rayan Ait-Nouri who will represent Algeria. Both would likely be in Pep Guardiola's squad if fit, but the sheer wealth of options available to Guardiola means the impact will be minimal. Joško Gvardiol has been deputising for Ait-Nouri at left back during a recent injury absence having played their regularly in the past, while Marmoush has not been a guaranteed starter this season. With Jérémy Doku, Savinho, Oscar Bobb, Rayan Cherki, Bernardo Silva... there's reasonable cover. And they'll still have Erling Haaland up front, though Marmoush would have been a good option to help manage his workload during a busy part of the season.
The New Year fixtures
Any player whose country is knocked out in the group stages has an outside chance of being back for the January 3rd fixtures, when Sunderland face Spurs. More likely is that they'll be back for the midweek fixtures that follow, though that too could be tight. Sunderland play their second away game in a matter of days then as they travel to face Brentford. Any player whose country makes it to the knockout stages will likely miss both.
Of all Sunderland's opponents, Spurs will one of the most impacted by AFCON. Midfielder Yves Bissouma will likely be selected by Mali, Pape Matar Sarr by Senegal and Mohammed Kudus by Ghana. Though there is depth for Thomas Frank in forward areas, Kudus has been a regular since his summer move from West Ham and would be a big miss. Bissouma less so, as injuries mean he is actually yet to make an appearance this season. Pape Matar Sarr has featured regularly but from the bench, with the summer signings of Joao Palhinha and Xavi Simons meaning there is good midfield depth. Injuries in that department between now and then could leave Spurs a little light, though.
Brentford's Dango Outtara will almost certainly be named in the Burkino Faso squad alongside Bertrand Traoré, and as one of their best attacking players this season he would be a big miss if absent. Midfielder Francis Onyeka will also likely be called up by Nigeria, though most of his recent football for Brentford has been as a substitute with Keith Andrews' primary options well established and Jordan Henderson thriving.
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The FA Cup and Crystal Palace
Sunderland will then play the third round of the FA Cup, before welcoming Crystal Palace to the Stadium of Light. Any player who makes it to the last four of AFCON will miss this game, but anyone knocked out before the semi finals should be able to feature. Palace could lose four players to the tournament, and winger Ismaila Sarr will be a huge miss if Senegal advance to the latter stages. He has been a regular this season, and a big attacking threat for Oliver Glasner. Christantus Uche will be called up by Nigeria, but has mostly been used off the bench since his move from Getafe later in the summer.
Midfield Cheick Doucoure and defender Chadi Riad will likely be called up by Mali and Morocco if fit, but Palace have managed well amid their current injury issues and so alternatives are already well established.
So - how big a challenge is this for Sunderland?
In short, massive. There's cause for optimism in that left back is the only position where Régis Le Bris doesn't currently have an established alternative for any player who is leaving, though that will change if Dennis Cirkin makes a successful return in the coming weeks. He'll be left short in the wide areas but again, Romaine Mundle could go some way to solving that between now and then.
Defensively Sunderland will also keep most of their squad together, and that has been the bedrock of their success so far this season. Internally, it's seen as a big opportunity to give chances to those who have had to settle for limited roles so far. There's no doubt, though, that Sunderland are going to be impacted far more than most. And given how hectic the schedule is at that time of the campaign, it would only take one or two injuries to really stretch Le Bris's options. It's going to be a fascinating few weeks.
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