Ty Simpson has emerged this season after three years as a backup. He earned the Alabama starting job and has delivered consistent play. Through eight games he has thrown for 2,184 yards with 20 touchdowns and one interception. He has completed 177 of 261 passes for roughly 68 percent and posts a passer rating near 163. Coaches praise his pocket awareness and his calm under pressure.
Simpson is now the betting favorite to be the first overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. Oddsmakers have pushed him to the top of many boards based on his production and upside.
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Scouts point to his poise his decision making and his ability to move in the pocket. They like the way he extends plays with his feet when needed. His long apprenticeship as a backup has shown coaches he can learn and improve.
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Not everyone is fully convinced. Draft analyst Mel Kiper said “His lack of experience might be a concern.” Kiper placed Simpson fifth on his big board and listed him behind Dante Moore and Fernando Mendoza. Kiper also noted “Simpson knows the game and competes on every down.” Those words highlight both the upside and the questions teams face.
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Odds to be the 1st overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft per @BetOnline_ag :
Ty Simpson 2/1
Fernando Mendoza 11/4
LaNorris Sellers 11/2
Rueben Bain Jr 6/1
Dante Moore 15/2
Garrett Nussmeier 20/1
Jayden Maiava 33/1
John Mateer 40/1
Arch Manning 50/1
Carson Beck 66/1
— Cole Cubelic (@colecubelic) October 30, 2025
Other names in the No.1 conversation include Fernando Mendoza, LaNorris Sellers, Dante Moore, Arch Manning and Rueben Bain. Teams will weigh readiness versus ceiling. Some clubs may prefer a more experienced prospect. Others will bet on Simpson’s trajectory and his growth potential.
Simpson still has eligibility left. He could return to college or declare for the draft. If he stays the top choice many teams will find him hard to pass on. The coming months will show how franchises value him and whether he keeps the top spot soon.
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