It’s pretty strange to say that neither the Chiefs (3rd place in the AFC West) nor the Bills (2nd place in the AFC East) are in the pole position of the entire conference, much less their own division. Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes are not in any way accustomed to looking up in their divisional standings. But that is merely an observation, as everyone knows this is still a pivotal game in the conference for the two teams that will both ultimately win their divisions and will almost certainly meet in the postseason yet again (or at least, we hope, here in Kansas City).
But what’s crazy about this year’s iteration of this rivalry is that so much of this game’s attention is going to be on the running game—and for very different reasons. On the Bills’ side, it’s because it’s just darn good. We all know that the Chiefs’ defense will prioritize the containment of Josh Allen and James Cook, particularly because the latter is becoming a genuine star in this league. On the other side, things are looking very murky for the Chiefs’ running backs, and that was [before starter Isiah Pacheco went down](https://arrowheadaddict.com/isiah-pacheco-s-injury-puts-chiefs-in-uncomfortable-spot-vs-bills-01k8p3dvjmae) late in the fourth quarter against the Commanders on Monday.
Without Pacheco, the team’s leading rusher is Mahomes. That’s not good. So here’s the rundown of Kansas City’s path at running back. Kareem Hunt and Brashard Smith have been pleasing, though not eye-popping, in situational roles. Hunt has excelled in short-yardage situations, while Smith has slowly blossomed as a twitchy pass catcher out of the backfield who can also give you some juice in the running game. Kansas City will also have Elijah Mitchell (almost certainly?) active for this game, as well as Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who was back on the practice squad until Saturday, when the Chiefs elevated him for this game.
So which running back will get the biggest increase in snaps? I believe it will be Brashard Smith, not Kareem Hunt.
With Isiah Pacheco sidelined, rookie Brashard Smith could be the key to keeping Kansas City’s ground game alive in Buffalo.
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The Chiefs love Hunt in his existing role. Notice that the Chiefs had the opportunity to bring up Carson Steele, last year’s short-yardage situational runner, but elected to elevate Edwards-Helaire instead. I think they will continue to preserve Hunt in that way, keeping him for the most necessary circumstances, and that we will see Brashard Smith pick up some of those missing snaps.
The Bills have some key injuries on their defense, most importantly at defensive tackle. [They will be without Ed Oliver](https://buffalowdown.com/bills-get-a-nightmare-update-on-ed-oliver-injury-at-the-worst-possible-time) as well as DaQuan Jones, whom they depend upon heavily up the middle. Without their two starters, the Bills will have journeymen Larry Ogunjobi, Jordan Phillips, and rookie Deone Walker at defensive tackle. That’s it. Furthermore, the Bills are likely to be spending most of their attention on limiting the Chiefs’ irrepressible passing offense.
Rewind to Week 7. Kansas City played the entire fourth quarter without many of their starters against the Raiders. Smith was given 14 rushing attempts that day, and while at first glance the box score is not pretty (39 yards for a 2.8 average), it should be pointed out that it was also with the Chiefs’ backup offensive line and that the Raiders knew KC was running the football. When you go back to watch the fourth quarter of that game, the Chiefs weren’t using Smith to creatively manufacture mismatches; six of his 10 carries in the fourth quarter were rushes into the A gap. It was the Chiefs’ opportunity to get Smith some NFL experience at carrying the ball into the teeth of an NFL defense (even if it was the Raiders).
The shifty rookie ranks second in the NFL among qualifying running backs in forcing a missed tackle on an impressive 38.5% of his touches. The table is set, and the Chiefs would love nothing more than for their seventh-round rookie to step into Pacheco’s shoes and help lead the Chiefs to a win in Buffalo.