My final Pittsburgh Steelers thoughts as the team hosts the Indianapolis Colts for their fourth home game at Acrisure Stadium.
1. THE OFFENSE MUST SCORE EARLY AND OFTEN
It’s no secret that the Steelers’ defense is struggling. They have given up over 300 yards passing per game to their last two opponents and the secondary has looked lost and listless in those games. DeShon Elliott, perhaps the strongest piece of the Steelers defensive backs group, was just placed on the injured reserve list. To make matters worse, every safety has been ruled out for this game other than Juan Thornhill and Kyle Dugger, who just arrived in Pittsburgh.
It would take a miracle for this patchwork defense to defend the passing game of Colts. Quarterback Daniel Jones has seemingly been reborn in Indianapolis and posted over 2,000 yards passing and an outstanding adjusted net yards per attempt of 8.42. Not to mention the high-powered rushing attack of Colts running back Jonathan Taylor, who has 12 rushing touchdowns so far.
If the Steelers’ defense cannot stop the Colts offense, the only hope is for the Steelers to keep up in a shootout. That will require an essentially flawless game from Aaron Rodgers, DK Metcalf, and the tight end group.
2. THIS IS THE WEEK TO BE AGGRESSIVE
If you track fourth down attempts and “surrender punt” data, you know that Mike Tomlin, the coach who routinely states that he “doesn’t live in his fears”, has been very conservative this season. This is the week to go big when it comes to risk and reward. Punting on fourth down with one yard to go from midfield is not how they will beat the best team in the AFC. At 7-1, the Colts only loss came at the Rams from an 88 yard Matt Stafford touchdown pass with 1:33 left in the fourth quarter.
The jumbo package, with both Darnell Washington and OL Spencer Anderson lining up as a tight ends, is working. Jaylen Warren is finding ways to earn yards after contact in every game. Tomlin needs to trust his offense this week and give them every opportunity on every snap.
3. WE NEED TO SEE NICK HERBIG MORE
Yes, this was a topic in this post last week. No, Mike Tomlin and Teryl Austin did not play Nick Herbig more. In fact, his defensive snap count dropped from 50 (versus Browns) to 29 (at Bengals) to 24 last week in the loss to the Packers. The Steelers’ pass rush is not generating any pressure against opposing quarterbacks. Against the Packers, the Steelers had no sacks and only 18 pressures.
The defense’s only splash play was a forced fumble. Guess who was responsible for that? Yup, Nick Herbig.
On a day when the defense is almost certain to have their hands full, the coaches need to put their most aggressive playmakers on the field. Nick Herbig needs to see the field as much as Alex Highsmith and T.J. Watt this week, whether in rotation or a three OLB formation.
4. HERE’S HOPING ISAAC SEUMALO IS REALLY BACK
The Steelers left guard was sidelined most of the week with a pectoral injury sustained in the game against the Packers. He returned to practice on Friday and was listed as a limited participant. Seumalo does not have an injury game status, so he should be starting.
The biggest question is whether he will be able to make it through the game. Pectoral injuries are challenging for offensive linemen, who need a good push and punch with their arms. If he can’t stay in the game, Spencer Anderson will take over. Without Anderson as the extra lineman, this will limit the use of the jumbo package for the run game. The team needs to hope that Seumalo can handle his workload for all 60 minutes.
5. IT COULD GET VERY UGLY, VERY FAST
I hate to be pessimistic here. And to be fair, it is actually realistic to say that this game could get out of hand long before halftime. If the Steelers’ offense can’t put up points on early drives and score touchdowns instead of field goals, the Colts could jump to an early advantage and build an insurmountable lead. The Steelers are facing perhaps the most complete team in the league on a week when Pittsburgh is missing multiple key starters on defense and special teams.
It’s surprising that the spread is only + 3.5 for Pittsburgh. The Colts might beat that five-fold. If the game gets completely out of hand, Aaron Rodgers needs to give way to Mason Rudolph so he can live to fight another day.
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