Has there been a more difficult team to figure out this season than the Atlanta Falcons? Some will remember an impressive primetime victory over Buffalo, while others will point to blowout losses to Carolina and Miami.
On the other side, there might not be a bigger surprise than the New England Patriots, who are 6-2 and have the league’s second-best record. QB Drake Maye is making himself heard in MVP discussions, and coach Mike Vrabel has the fanbase believing again.
On paper, New England should get the job done at home. The Patriots’ Week 9 odds show they are a consensus 5.5-point favorite at the top Massachusetts sportsbooks. However, a lot depends on which version of the Falcons shows up.
Falcons vs. Patriots predictions and best bets
Patriots -5.5 (-105 odds at FanDuel)
Bijan Robinson UNDER 16.5 rush attempts (-130 odds at DraftKings)
Kayshon Boutte OVER 32.5 receiving yards (-114 odds at FanDuel)
NOTE: Odds are based on the best value our experts find while writing; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds.
The Patriots are on a roll, and I expect that to continue on Sunday.
The Falcons’ offense is built around RB Bijan Robinson, and the Patriots have yet to allow a running back to reach the 50-yard mark on the ground. They are a top-5 defense in stopping the run according to EPA/rush.
Robinson might not get as many attempts as he is accustomed to if the Patriots shut down the running game early. If New England gets out to a lead like I project, it’ll force the Falcons to get away from the run. In their last two losses, Robinson rushed a combined 23 times against San Francisco and Miami. He has gone under this number in four of seven games.
If the Patriots limit Robinson, the game will fall into the hands of QB Michael Penix Jr. Not only is Penix coming off an injury, but he’s a noticeably worse quarterback on the road in his first full season. His completion percentage is 15% lower on the road compared to at home. He averages 104 fewer yards per game, and his TD-INT ratio is 4-1 at home but just 1-2 on the road.
On the other side is Drake Maye, who is top five in passing yards and QB Rating while possessing a dazzling 15-3 TD-INT ratio. Maye has multiple passing touchdowns in six of eight games.
WR Kayshon Boutte is quickly emerging as his favorite target. The former LSU Tiger has eclipsed 40 yards in four straight games and has four touchdowns over that span. Get in on this connection before the rest of the league notices it. This receiving total for Boutte feels about 20 yards too low.
Falcons vs. Patriots moneyline analysis
How the Patriots win as the favorite
Best odds: -230 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
The Patriots have been cruising, so they’ll want to see more of the same.
The defense has gotten better since the start of the season. The Patriots are strong against the run, not allowing any opposing back to reach 50 rushing yards.
If they have that level of success against Robinson, it’s hard to envision Penix going on the road and outdueling Drake Maye.
How the Falcons win as an underdog
Best odds:+205 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Atlanta has been impossible to read all season. When you think you have the Falcons figured out, they throw a wrench into everything.
The Falcons nearly forced overtime against the 6-2 Buccaneers, but had kicker issues. They beat the Buffalo Bills. They’ve proven they can hang with the elite teams in this league.
Maybe they’ll have another one of those performances on Sunday.
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