In the past week, an analyst from B. Riley highlighted the potential for Genius Sports to benefit from the rise of U.S. prediction markets, citing its exclusive data partnership and equity stake with the NFL as key strengths.
This positioning could allow Genius Sports to monetize real-time data through multiple channels, especially as traditional sportsbook operators move into the prediction market space and large states like California and Texas remain untapped for sports betting.
We'll explore how Genius Sports’ NFL data partnership could further support its long-term growth narrative outlined by analysts.
Outshine the giants: these 26 early-stage AI stocks could fund your retirement.
Advertisement
Genius Sports Investment Narrative Recap
To be a shareholder in Genius Sports, you need to believe in the company’s ability to monetize its exclusive sports data partnerships as the U.S. sports betting and prediction markets broaden. While the latest analyst commentary spotlights upside from new market opportunities and the NFL relationship, the impact on the most pressing short-term catalyst, successful US expansion through new data monetization channels, remains to be seen. The biggest current risk is the ongoing need to renegotiate key sports rights agreements, which can pressure margins if terms worsen.
The recent announcement expanding the partnership with Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook is closely relevant, as it delivers Genius Sports’ real-time data and BetVision technology to a wider audience. This move reflects an effort to solidify its position across multiple channels, aligning with catalysts tied to market and product expansion, though long-term success will depend on both execution and evolving market adoption.
Yet, in contrast to these growth ambitions, investors should be mindful of the recurring negotiations for exclusive league data rights, as...
Read the full narrative on Genius Sports (it's free!)
Genius Sports' narrative projects $930.2 million revenue and $120.7 million earnings by 2028. This requires 18.5% yearly revenue growth and a $198.6 million earnings increase from -$77.9 million today.
Uncover how Genius Sports' forecasts yield a $14.76 fair value, a 31% upside to its current price.
Exploring Other Perspectives
GENI Community Fair Values as at Nov 2025
GENI Community Fair Values as at Nov 2025
Six different fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community range from US$3.97 to US$20.14 per share. This spread reflects how expectations for growth in new U.S. prediction markets can shape sharply different outlooks for future performance, encouraging you to compare several viewpoints before making any judgment.
Explore 6 other fair value estimates on Genius Sports - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!
Build Your Own Genius Sports Narrative
Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.
A great starting point for your Genius Sports research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
Our free Genius Sports research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Genius Sports' overall financial health at a glance.
Curious About Other Options?
These stocks are moving-our analysis flagged them today. Act fast before the price catches up:
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One Place
We've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.
• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency
• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile
• Track the Fair Value of your stocks
Try a Demo Portfolio for Free
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com