Nobody cares who the MVP should be halfway through the season, but voters also like to have a decision made before the playoffs begin and Matthew Stafford’s case is as good as anyone’s. The quarterback in his 17th season is having a career year with a league-leading 21 touchdowns and only two interceptions, which in many cases would make Stafford a simple vote for the undecided. However, 2025 has been anything other than simple and while Rams fans will say “Yeah, obviously it’s Matthew Stafford”, what about fans of the Patriots?
Or the Eagles?
Or the Bills?
Or the Seahawks?
Or the Colts?
In past years, Stafford’s numbers would have him as a clear frontrunner on the stat leaderboards. But in an age of passing where the league has practically made it illegal to touch the quarterback or the receivers, Stafford’s phenomenal touchdown:interception ratio only has him sixth in passer rating. How is that possible and what does it to do in the MVP debate?
Halfway through the 2025 season, does Matthew Stafford have the strongest case to win MVP?
Patriots fans would say: “Drake Maye does more with less”
In only his second season, Maye has the Patriots back atop the AFC East at 7-2 and tied with the Colts and Broncos for best record in the AFC. Maye was drafted by a team that went 4-13 in Bill Belichick’s last season and 4-13 in Maye’s rookie season with Jerod Mayo, ranking 30th in points scored, and now they’re already back in the race for the number one seed.
Maye’s 116.9 passer rating is the best in the NFL for any quarterback who has made more than 5 starts.
With 17 touchdowns and four interceptions, Maye is on pace for over 30 touchdown passes despite his top receivers being Stefon Diggs (who nobody wanted before he got linked up with Maye), Kayshon Boutte, Hunter Henry, and Mack Hollins. New England is also supposed to have one of the worst offensive lines in the league and Maye has endured 34 sacks already, second-most in the league behind Cam Ward.
Maye is also a gifted athlete, rushing for 270 yards and two touchdown.
C’mon Rams fans, are you really going to deny that the voters are dying to vote for a Patriots MVP again?
Eagles fans would say: “Jalen Hurts is a winner”
The Eagles had the week off but the defending Super Bowl champions are still in first place and leading the race for the number one seed at 6-2 with a 5-1 conference record. Hurts is 49-12 as a starter since 2022.
This season, Philadelphia has already beaten the Rams, the Bucs, the Chiefs, the Vikings, and the Cowboys. We’re almost certain of three of those teams making the playoffs and the Vikings, Cowboys could get in too.
This season, Hurts has a 114.4 passer rating (Stafford’s is below his at 113.2) with 15 touchdowns and one interception, plus he has rushed for 207 yards and five touchdowns. People will argue “What’s the difference between 20 touchdowns in the air and 20 touchdowns combined?”
By those numbers, Hurts and several others make Stafford’s stats of 21 TD/2 INT look great, but not exclusive. At a time when quarterbacks can easily complete 70% of their passes, Stafford’s rate of 67.2% only ranks 16th.
Hey, I’m not arguing against Stafford. I’m just telling you what people will use as arguments against Stafford.
Bills fans will say: “Josh Allen is the best player in the NFL!”
The argument in Buffalo is slightly different, contending that even if Josh Allen only has 13 touchdown passes in eight starts, he’s clearly “the best player” in the league, evidenced by the fact that he won MVP last season and the Bills are 6-2. Is that a weak argument?
Josh Allen is the BETTING FAVORITE after Week 9.
Allen might only have the same number of touchdowns as Joe Flacco (who actually isn’t a terrible argument for MVP given what he’s done for the Bengals) but again look at the complete picture: Allen has rushed for 7 touchdowns and 280 yards.
That gives Josh Allen 20 total touchdowns, which is only one fewer touchdown than the immobile Stafford.
After completing 63.6% of his passes and winning MVP in 2024, Allen is completing a career-high 70.4%. He also has a career-high 8.2 yards per attempt. Allen is on pace for about 28 touchdowns in the air, same as 2024, but also 15 touchdowns on the ground. That would be 43 total touchdowns, which is three more than he had as the MVP.
Allen has one of the top running backs, James Cook, but is throwing passes to Dalton Kincaid, Khalil Shakir, Josh Palmer, and Keon Coleman. Voters on Allen’s side will argue that Puka Nacua and Davante Adams have made life easier for Stafford than what the reigning MVP, who beat the Chiefs on Sunday, has to work with in Buffalo.
Colts fans will say: “It’s Jonathan Taylor’s turn!”
Even though the Colts lost in Week 9, Taylor’s argument won’t be laid this early. He’s built a foundation to work with so that in the event that he rushes for 600 yards and 10 touchdowns in December, maybe getting close to 2,000 yards for a number one seed in the AFC, that voters will be compelled to think twice about never choosing a running back to win the award again.
In fact, with so many quarterbacks splitting votes against one another because so many of them have such absurd passing statistics, an outstanding running back might have the best argument of all.
Consider the fact that while Saquon Barkley has Jalen Hurts and Derrick Henry has Lamar Jackson, both losing MVP votes last year because of who the quarterback is on those teams, Taylor gets extra credit because Indy’s quarterback is Daniel Jones. That lack of help at quarterback was even more apparent in Week 9’s loss to the Steelers:
Taylor’s MVP case might not be hurt that much this week given that Daniel Jones had such a bad game. If the Colts win 14 games and Taylor rushes for 1,800 yards and scores 25 touchdowns, he might win MVP as the sole candidate at running back.
Seahawks fans will say: “Jaxon Smith-Njigba, not Sam Darnold, is the MVP!”
Even though Darnold has had a good debut season in Seattle, many are still skeptical that he’s ever going to recover from his years with the Jets and Panthers. Suddenly he became a good quarterback when he had Justin Jefferson to throw to last year and for that reason many expected Darnold to regress by leaving the Vikings for the Seahawks.
Instead, he’s gotten better. Is that because of Smith-Njigba?
Smith-Njigba has 68 catches for 948 yards and he’s averaging 118.5 yards per game. That’s 17 more yards per game than second place Puka Nacua. Smith-Njigba is averaging 16.3 yards per catch, an absurd number for a receiver who also has the highest target share in the league.
Nobody has caught more first downs than Smith-Njigba and nobody has nowhere near as many 20-yard or 40-yard catches as Smith-Njigba.
It’s tricky to say “he’s on pace for” with wide receivers, but he has 948 yards in eight games. If Smith-Njigba is the first receiver in history to hit the 2,000-yard mark in a single season, even if it’s a 17-game season, and the Seahawks win the NFC West, he’ll probably have the best argument for MVP that we’ve seen from a receiver in a very long time.
And again: While so many QBs are splitting voters, Smith-Njigba could be the only WR candidate of note.
Ja’Marr Chase’s team is in the gutter and Nacua has already left FOUR games with an injury this season.
Other potential MVP candidates:
Bo Nix, Broncos (QB of 7-2 team)
Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs (probably not but he’s Mahomes)
Lamar Jackson, Ravens (they’re great with him and awful without him)
Darnold, Seahawks
Baker Mayfield, Bucs (QB of 6-2 team, but he’s falling behind others)
It’s wild that in the midst of all this there’s a two-time MVP who has a passer rating of 136.7 this season. Lamar’s rushing numbers are down (kind of) but he’s having a career-year as a passer. The Ravens average over 30 points per game with Lamar and 15 points without Lamar. And Zay Flowers might be good, but the Ravens probably have one of the lowest-ranked number ones, lowest-ranked number twos, and lowest-ranked number threes in the league.
If you’re only looking at Matthew Stafford in the vacuum of being a Rams fan and paying attention to how good he is doing this season, you’re missing the larger picture. Stafford is one of the top candidates to win MVP, that’s indisputable. But having an unbiased look at how other fans look at their team’s quarterback in a vacuum — like the quick turnaround of the Patriots under Drake Maye or the dominant dual threat abilities of quarterbacks on teams that could get the number one seeds in Buffalo and Philadelphia — it’s easy to say that this race is anywhere but at the midpoint.
There’s a lot of arguing left to do.