The odds are stacked against Leeds United as they prepare to face Nottingham Forest in a crucial Premier League clash, according to Opta.
Leeds’ heavy defeat against Brighton means the relief that was present at Elland Road following the win over West Ham has been replaced by a nagging sense of doubt.
Following Wolves’ decision to replace Vitor Pereira, all three of the bottom clubs in the Premier League have replaced their manager; some Leeds fans called for the club to follow suit and replace Farke.
Although Leeds still have a four-point cushion on the bottom three, the meek manner of the defeat at the Amex Stadium was alarming, as Farke criticised winger Noah Okafor during a tame performance.
Now, Opta have delivered their concerning verdict on Leeds’ hopes of securing a vital away victory as they look to open up breathing space in the Premier League relegation battle.
Daniel Farke during Brighton & Hove Albion v Leeds United - Premier League
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Opta deliver Nottingham Forest v Leeds United prediction
Any Leeds fans who opened up the Opta website in the hope of finding a reassuring prediction for the game against Forest will have been sorely disappointed.
Leeds have failed to score in four of their five away games in the Premier League so far this season, and their hopes of adding to their solitary away win against Wolves appear remote.
The football data specialists have given Forest a 50.9% chance of securing a win in the Sunday afternoon kick-off at the City Ground, having improved under new head coach Sean Dyche in recent weeks.
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By contrast, Leeds are given just a 24.2% chance of pulling off a much-needed away win to add to their tally of three points earned away from Elland Road this season so far.
Leeds are yet to draw a game on the road in the 2025/26 Premier League season, but Opta rate their chances of leaving Nottingham with a point marginally better than their hopes of claiming a win, at 24.9%.
Daniel Farke arrives at Elland Road for a Championship clash between Leeds United and Burnley
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Daniel Farke has a poor away track record in the Premier League
Farke’s struggles away from home in the Premier League are not restricted to his time as manager of Leeds United, as the German has struggled to compete on the road.
The current Leeds boss has taken charge of 31 away games in the Premier League in total, according to TransferMarkt, across his time with Leeds and Norwich.
Played Won Drawn Lost PPG
31 3 1 27 0.32
Daniel Farke’s away record in the Premier League
Heading into the game against Forest, Farke has won just three of those 31 games, giving him a success rate of just under one win in every 10 attempts.
With just one draw away from home, against Leicester City in 2019, Farke has taken a total of 10 points from 99 available to him in away games. Although Leeds’ home form has been strong this season, they need more from their away fixtures to retain their top-flight status.