How will Enzo Maresca’s side fare against the Azerbaijani champions? We look ahead to Wednesday’s UEFA Champions League clash with our Qarabag vs Chelsea prediction and preview.
Qarabag vs Chelsea: The Key Stats
Chelsea claimed all three points in a convincing 65.8% of pre-match simulations by the Opta supercomputer.
The Blues have scored 10 goals in their two previous games against Qarabag in the Champions League.
Qarabag will be looking to win back-to-back home games in the same season in major European competition for the first time ever.
Chelsea will be looking to make it three wins in a row in the league phase of the Champions League when they make the long journey to Qarabag for Wednesday’s clash.
The Blues will head into this European encounter full of confidence after a hard-fought 1-0 win over Tottenham in the Premier League on Saturday. João Pedro‘s first league goal in eight games proved the difference at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
Enzo Maresca’s side were outclassed in a 3-1 defeat to Bayern Munich on the opening matchday, but responded with a narrow 1-0 win over Benfica before thumping Ajax 5-1.
Two consecutive wins in Europe moved Maresca onto 20 victories in 23 matches in international competition with Chelsea, excluding qualifiers and including their Club World Cup glory in the summer. They have found the net at least once in all of those games, averaging 2.9 goals per outing (66 scored).
That strong form is despite Maresca using this competition as a chance to rotate his side. Chelsea have already handed appearances to 25 different players in the Champions League this season, more than any other team across the first three matchdays.
They have also had the second youngest starting XI in terms of average age across the opening trio of matchdays in this UEFA tournament (23y 339d), only behind defending champions Paris Saint-Germain (23y 261d).
Youth has proved no issue, though. With Marc Guiu, Estêvão and Tyrique George on target against Ajax, Chelsea became the first side in European Cup/Champions League history to see three different teenagers score for them in a single match.
Chelsea Teenagers Scoring UCL Game vs Ajax
A first-half penalty against 10-man Ajax saw Estêvão become Chelsea’s youngest scorer in history in this competition. Should the Brazilian find the net on Wednesday, he would become the first South American player to score in consecutive appearances while aged 18 or younger.
The success of Maresca’s teenagers has been aided by the experience around them, however. Enzo Fernández scored the first penalty last time out against Ajax before handing the next spot-kick to Estêvão, though it’s the Chelsea midfielder’s partner who has caught the eye on the ball.
Moisés Caicedo has completed 92.9% of his passes under high-intensity pressure in the Champions League this season (65/70). That makes up the third-best completion rate by a central midfielder across the opening three matchdays, behind Arthur Vermeeren (93.3%) and Aleix García (93%) among players to attempt 50 or more.
An away win on Wednesday should not be considered certain, though, given Chelsea have lost each of their last three trips in the Champions League. The Blues have only once previously lost four in a row on the road in the competition, doing so between December 2004 and May 2005.
Qarabag are in decent form, too, having taken six of nine points available this season (W2 D1) in Europe. They had only claimed two of a possible 18 in their previous appearance in this tournament in 2017-18.
Back-to-back wins over Benfica and Copenhagen gave them their strong start, before a 3-1 defeat to Athletic Club last time out. The Azerbaijani side have also already tripled their goal haul from the 2017-18 edition (two), netting six goals in their three games this campaign.
A key contributor to that upturn in front of goal has been Leandro Andrade, who has scored three times in five appearances in major European competition in 2025. That is as many as he managed in 22 European outings for the club prior to this year (three goals).
Leandro Andrade Qarabag
However, it was Abdellah Zoubir and Emmanuel Addai who were on target in Qarabag’s first, and only, home fixture of this edition. The pair sealed a 2-0 win over Copenhagen, and Gurban Gurbanov’s side will now be looking to win back-to-back home games in the same season in major European competition for the first time ever. Both Zoubir and Addai were again on target in Friday’s 2-0 victory over Mil-Mugan.
In terms of team news, there is no change to the headline absentees for Chelsea, who will again be without Cole Palmer, Levi Colwill and Benoît Badiashile.
Qarabag vs Chelsea Head-to-Head
The odds are against the hosts. Chelsea have scored 10 goals in two games against Qarabag in the Champions League. That is the Blues’ joint-most in their first two matches against an opponent in the competition (also 10 v Nordsjælland).
This pair have only met twice before, both in the 2017-18 group stage of UEFA’s premier club tournament. Chelsea won 6-0 at home and 4-0 on the road in those encounters.
Those results are in keeping with Qarabag’s struggles against English sides in Europe, having lost all seven meetings with such teams and conceding 21 goals.
Qarabag’s only goal against an English team came against Tottenham via Richard Almeida’s penalty in the 2015-16 Europa League.
Qarabag vs Chelsea Prediction
Chelsea are the strong favourites on Wednesday, winning 65.8% of 10,000 pre-match simulations by the Opta supercomputer.
Qarabag may have started in encouraging form, but their victory chances were rated at just 14.9% in the same data-led sims. A draw was deemed more likely than a home win at 19.3%.
Qarabag vs Chelsea Prediction
Qarabag vs Chelsea Predicted Lineups
Qarabag FK: Mateusz Kochalski, Matheus Silva, Bahlul Mustafazada, Kevin Medina, Elvin Cafarquliyev, Pedro Bicalho, Kady Borges, Camilo Durán, Leandro Andrade, Nariman Akhundzada.
Head coach: Gurban Gurbanov
Chelsea: Filip Jörgensen, Malo Gusto, Wesley Fofana, Josh Acheampong, Jorrel Hato, Facundo Buonanotte, Roméo Lavia, Enzo Fernández, Estêvão, Jamie Gittens, Marc Guiu.
Head coach: Enzo Maresca
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Wednesday in Azerbaijan, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
UEFA Champions League Stats Opta
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