So you want to contend for a championship.
Congrats. Welcome to the NFL’s microscope.
Every team in the league is now combing through your film in search of weakness down to the last detail. It’s not enough to know your plays and your players anymore. Opponents are studying the rules underpinning your offense and defense and turning them against you every chance they can.
This is what the Patriots can expect now at 7-2, tied for the best record in football. Drake Maye has rendered playing simple, straightforward defense an impossibility. He’s too good. Mike Vrabel’s defense has a couple of tentpole players opponents must avoid before they can start attacking others: Christian Gonzalez and Milton Williams.
The Falcons know.
On Sunday, Atlanta understood the Patriots’ man-to-man coverage rules inside the red zone and sent star receiver Drake London in motion knowing Gonzalez would pass him off to 5-foot-8 corner Marcus Jones if London moved inside the slot. The plan worked. London used his eight-inch height advantage to score one touchdown on Jones, then another on a well-schemed pass play that kept the Falcons within reach.
Mind you, Atlanta is 3-5, and not regarded as one of the better-coached teams in the league. What do you think the division-leading Bucs will have in store next week?
Probably a barrage of blitzes, much like the Falcons brought last weekend.
Atlanta hung around because Maye let them with a strip-sack against a blitz late in the first half. Maye has fumbled six times this season, tied for second-most in the NFL. He’s also taken 34 sacks, most of which have not been caused by lost individual blocks along the offensive line.
Like most quarterbacks, if Maye is under pressure often enough, he will crack to some degree. That’s just life at the position. But unlike most quarterbacks, Maye is turning the pressure into sacks at the second-highest rate in the league among starters.
Finally, there’s the pass rush. The Pats have two sacks in their last two games and a middling pressure rate on the season. Now, Vrabel can coach Maye to keep two hands on the ball, and change up his defense’s coverage rules in the red zone, where opponents are scoring touchdowns at a higher rate against the Patriots than any other team in the league.
But Tuesday’s trade deadline is the only time and place they can bolster their pass rush. It’s time to add on the edge, even if it means paying a mid-round pick to pad depth behind Harold Landry and K’Lavon Chaisson. If the Patriots want to truly contend in 2025, these are their fixes.
Here’s what else the film revealed about the Patriots’ latest win:
Drake Maye
Foxboro, MA - New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye throws a touchdown pass during the first quarter of the game at Gillette Stadium. (Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)
Foxboro, MA - New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye throws a touchdown pass during the first quarter of the game at Gillette Stadium. (Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)
19-of-29 for 259 yards, 2 TDs, INT, 20 rushing yards
Accurate throw percentage: 77.8%
Under pressure: 6-of-11 for 54 yards, TD, 6 sacks, 10 rushing yards
Against the blitz: 6-of-11 for 119 yards, 4 sacks, 1 rushing yard
Behind the line: 1-of-1 for 1 yard
0-9 yards downfield: 12-of-14 for 117 yards, TD
10-19 yards downfield: 4-of-7 for 62 yards, TD, INT
20+ yards downfield: 2-of-5 for 79 yards
Notes: It’s a testament to Maye’s MVP-caliber season that we can look at his performance Sunday, shrug and say …
“C-plus.”
Maye’s strip-sack late in the first half was the defining play of the game until Parker Romo’s missed extra point. His fumbling issue is now well-documented, but the fact Maye was responsible for three of his six sacks deserves more examination. Because for as much pressure Maye finds himself under — which often enough is not his fault — he owns the second-highest pressure-to-sack rate in the league at 27.4%.
Meaning, Maye is taking bad situations and making them worse more often than every other starting quarterback except Titans rookie Cam Ward.
On the other hand, Maye layered two spectacular throws Sunday that only the elite can make. He threw decisively and with plus accuracy, registering a completion percentage 5.3% higher than expected based on the difficulty of his throws. He also spread the ball around with completions to seven different receivers and identified coverage well. Maye’s absurdly high completion percentage on deep throws is finally starting to come back down to Earth, which was to be expected, especially once he lost preferred deep target Kayshon Boutte.
So, aside from a couple snaps where he was gun shy over the middle in the first half, the two turnovers and a few sacks, Maye’s tape was good. Not a great game, but certainly a passing performance.
Critical areas
Foxboro, MA - Mike Vrabel on the sideline during the fourth quarter of the game at Gillette Stadium. (Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)
Foxboro, MA - Mike Vrabel on the sideline during the fourth quarter of the game at Gillette Stadium. (Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)
Turnovers: Patriots 2, Falcons 0
Explosive play rate: Patriots 4.4%, Falcons 7.4%
Success rate: Patriots 46%, Falcons 41%
Red-zone efficiency: Patriots 3-4, Falcons 3-3
Defensive pressure rate: Patriots 37.5%, Falcons 50%
Offense
Game plan
Personnel breakdown: 42% of snaps in 11 personnel, 15% snaps in 12 personnel, 1% snaps in 13 personnel, 34% snaps in 21F personnel, 8% snaps in 22 personnel.***
Personnel production: 39% success rate in 11 personnel, 40% success rate in 12 personnel, 100% success rate in 13 personnel, 52% success rate in 21F personnel, 60% success rate in 22 personnel.
First-down down play-calls: 55% run (44% success rate), 45% run (31% success rate)
Play-action rate: 12.5%
Josh McDaniels called for multiple tight ends or backs on 58% of all offensive snaps, a bully-ball game plan that evolved into a pass-heavy approach. On the ground, the Patriots tried to beat up an undersized Falcons front by calling gap schemes — power, counter and duo — that featured double-teams or a pulling guard at the point of attack. While the Pats failed to generate a single explosive run, they posted their highest rushing success rate of the season at 46%.
In the passing game, McDaniels threw the kitchen sink at Atlanta early, deploying five different personnel groupings over his first six snaps from a variety of formations. He schemed DeMario Douglas’ touchdown by putting the speedy slot receiver in the backfield and correctly predicting edge-rusher Jalon Walker would be forced to peel off to cover Douglas’s wheel route in a massive mismatch. McDaniels worked to exploit Atlanta’s banged-up base defense by deploying heavy personnel on most early-down snaps in spread formations.
McDaniels used basic concepts to create quick, easy completions against the Falcons’ most common defensive calls: zone blitzes with five-man rushes and six defenders spread in coverage. Maye hit some early, especially in the flat. The Patriots also pulled back on their use of play-action, calling it on a season-low 12.5% of all pass plays.
Final note: despite seeing little man-to-man coverage after halftime, McDaniels made the perfect call to beat a man-blitz on Maye’s last completion, where Hunter Henry slipped behind two in-breaking routes that slowed his defender and allowed Henry to catch a pass in open space.
Player stats
Foxboro, MA - New England Patriots running back TreVeyon Henderson stiff arms Atlanta Falcons cornerback A.J. Terrell Jr. during the third quarter of the game at Gillette Stadium. (Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)
Foxboro, MA - New England Patriots running back TreVeyon Henderson stiff arms Atlanta Falcons cornerback A.J. Terrell Jr. during the third quarter of the game at Gillette Stadium. (Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)
Broken tackles: RB TreVeyon Henderson 5, RB Terrell Jennings, WR DeMario Douglas, QB Drake Maye
Pressure allowed: Team 3 (sack, 2 hurries), Maye 3 (3 sacks), RB TreVeyon Henderson 3 (QB hit, 2 hurries), RT Morgan Moses 3 (3 hurries), RG Mike Onwenu 2 (sack, QB hit), LT Will Campbell 2 (sack, hurry), LG Jared Wilson 2 (QB hit, hurry), C Garrett Bradbury 2 (2 hurries)
Run stuffs allowed: Team 3
Drops: TE Hunter Henry, Henderson
Notes
Few teams go an entire season allowing a 50% pressure rate in a single game, and the Patriots have now done it two weeks in a row.
So, who was at fault? Everybody. All five offensive linemen allowed at least two pressures, while Maye tied right tackle Morgan Moses for the team lead with three. Maye’s three pressures were all sacks he took after failing to throw the ball away or hit open targets he stared down in the first half before getting clobbered.
But Maye’s refusal to quit isn’t the only pattern here. Right guard Mike Onwenu got beat twice on stunts, an ongoing theme of the early season. One stunt he missed led to the strip-sack, which changed the game. Rough day for center Garrett Bradbury, too.
The Patriots miss Rhamondre Stevenson in blitz pickup. Henderson got beat with power and quickness and continues to lunge a little too often. Three allowed pressures in eight pass-blocking snaps won’t cut it, even if Sunday may have actually marked progress.
And what happened in a near scoreless second half? Maye took a red-zone sack and threw an interception to kill two drives, then stingy Atlanta defense (with a well-timed tackle for loss and pass breakup) held until the last series.
Now, the good. How about DeMario Douglas? Weaponizing his long speed unlocks a new dimension for this offense out of the slot, where he splits time with Diggs. Had the Patriots played more often from 11 personnel, Douglas may have done more damage than he did with his 16 snaps.
Diggs showed nice feel against zone coverage and run-after-catch ability on his touchdown. He was also open downfield on multiple occasions where Maye threw elsewhere and reeled in a massive 21-yard catch in the fourth quarter to convert on third-and-long.
Mike Vrabel provides injury update on Patriots WR Kayshon Boutte
Will Campbell and fullback Jack Westover delivered crushing blocks on the Patriots' second touchdown, a 3-yard score from backup running back Terrell Jennings. Henderson and Jennings both ran hard, leaving few, if any, yards on the field.
Campbell's improved run-blocking has been an underrated development as the Patriots begin to revive their run game. He's no longer slipping off blocks as often as he was earlier in the season.
Nice day for both tight ends. Hunter Henry created strong separation at the top of his routes and beat both man and zone. Meanwhile, Austin Hooper run-blocked extremely well save for one edge he lost on a second-half outside zone play that went for no gain.
Maye's trust in Henry not only iced the game, but showed up on two third-down completions in the first half. Henry moved the chains on all four of his catches and showed strong awareness sliding inbounds on his final grab. He's as reliable as they come.
Not much to write home about for rookie receivers Kyle Williams (31 snaps) and Efton Chism III (four snaps). Williams ran a slant on his only target, an incompletion where the ball sailed behind him late in the fourth quarter.
More Khyris Tonga at fullback, please. The veteran defensive tackle crushed his assignment on a third-and-1 snap midway through the opening drive despite never practicing against the defense Atlanta showed on that play. That 335-pound dude can move.
Defense
Foxboro, MA - New England Patriots defensive tackle Khyiris Tonga chases down Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson during the fourth quarter of the game at Gillette Stadium. (Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)
Foxboro, MA - New England Patriots defensive tackle Khyiris Tonga chases down Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson during the fourth quarter of the game at Gillette Stadium. (Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)
Game plan
Personnel breakdown: 85% three-corner nickel package, 13% base defense, 2% dime.****
Coverage breakdown: 65% zone, 35% man
Blitz rate: 30%
Blitz efficacy: 50% offensive success rate, 5.5 yards per play and 3 TDs allowed
Though Pro Bowl running back Bijan Robinson touched the ball 20 times, the Patriots spooked Atlanta out of running the ball early by playing base defense against a few snaps of Falcons' 11 personnel. That limited Robinson's damage as a runner, as did extra wide splits by the Patriots' edge defenders, which helped control the perimeter against Atlanta's preferred run play: outside zone. Defensive play-caller Zak Kuhr also called half of his blitzes on first down, likely an effort to stymie the run game and gum up any play-action shots.
Overall, Atlanta gained 3.7 yards per carry on designed runs and finished with just a 26% run rate. That's a win against a player like Robinson.
Kuhr's plan to stop the Falcons' other star, however, yielded mixed results. Christian Gonzalez shadowed No. 1 receiver Drake London for most of the game in man and zone and allowed three catches for 67 yards around two pass breakups. That matchup changed inside the red zone, where Atlanta was able to unstick London from Gonzalez by manipulating the Patriots' man-to-man and combination coverages and throw two touchdowns.
Aside from their man-to-man calls, the Patriots rotated into inverted versions of Cover 2, where their cornerbacks occupying the deep halves and their safeties dropped low to confuse Penix who prefers throwing to the sidelines instead of over the middle. The Pats also spun into disguised versions of quarters and Cover 3.
Player stats
Pressure: DL Milton Williams 5 (QB hit, 2 hurries), OLB K'Lavon Chaisson 2 (sack, hurry), OLB Harold Landry 2 (QB hit, hurry), LB Christian Elliss 2 (QB hit, hurry), OLB Anfernee Jennings (QB hit), DL Joshua Farmer (hurry), DL Cory Durden (hurry), CB Marcus Jones (hurry)
Run stuffs: Team 2, Chaisson
Pass deflections: CB Christian Gonzalez 2, CB Carlton Davis, S Dell Pettus
Missed tackles: LB Robert Spillane, Jones
Notes
Christian Gonzalez played Drake London to a draw, and for that the Patriots can be thankful considering London had three catches for 44 yards and a touchdown in the last seven-plus minutes of game time Gonzalez missed.
The Patriots must find a way to change their man-coverage inside the red zone, where Buffalo exploited them just like Atlanta did. On the Falcons' first touchdown, Gonzalez switched assignments with Jones once London entered the slot because that's what the call dictated. Might the Pats play true man-to-man next week?
Jones did his best on both touchdown passes he allowed, and London deserves more credit than Jones does blame. He's an elite receiver with a massive catch radius, terrific body control and strength. Jones and Carlton Davis — who allowed the last touchdown on another jump ball — have to tip their hats and move on.
Speaking of hat tips, Milton Williams is the Patriots' best hope if the front office does not add pass-rush help because of performances like Sunday's. He was a wrecking ball in 1-on-1 situations, despite not registering a sack.
Next to Williams, Christian Barmore had a rare no-show performance. He finished with zero pressure and made minimal impact against the run while playing across the defensive front.
Harold Landry remains an elite run defender on the edge. Meanwhile, the Falcons hit a counter play for their longest rush of the day, 15 yards, by going at his counterpart, K'Lavon Chaisson.
The Pats have been more mindful of Chaisson's subpar run defense, subbing him out for linebackers Jahlani Tavai and Anfernee Jennings on early downs. Both players factored heavily Sunday.
Inside linebacker Jack Gibbens replaced Christian Elliss (hip) once Elliss left with an injury. The Patriots did not suffer for it in pass defense, where Elliss had two pressures in 15 snaps against the pass.
Captain and fellow linebacker Robert Spillane appeared to have a coverage bust in the red zone that led to a chunk completion to Robinson. If so, that's the second red-zone coverage bust in as many weeks for Spillane.
Nice job by backup safety Dell Pettus, who played one snap (the Patriots' lone snap of dime personnel all day) and broke up a pass intended for Kyle Pitts.
The tackling remains strong. Only two misses against an offense designed to get players like Robinson and Kyle Pitts in space is impressive.
*Explosive plays are defined as runs of 12-plus yards and passes of 20-plus yards.
**Success rate is an efficiency metric measuring how often an offense stays on schedule. A play is successful when it produces positive EPA (Expected Points Added).
***11 personnel = one running back, one tight end; 12 personnel = one running back, two tight ends; 13 personnel = one back, three tight ends; 21 personnel = two backs, one tight end; 22 personnel = two backs, two tight ends.
****Base defense = four defensive backs; nickel = five; dime = six.