Chelsea moved into the top six in the Premier League with a 1-0 win over London rivals Tottenham at the weekend.
The Blues almost always win that fixture but it represented a sixth victory in seven matches so Enzo Maresca’s men are starting to find consistency.
If there is a gripe, it’s that they don’t always raise their game against so-called weaker opposition and the 2-1 home defeat at the hands of Sunderland is an obvious example.
That means they shouldn’t be taking Qarabag lightly even though they hammered the team from Azerbaijan by an aggregate of 10-0 in two meetings in the 2017/18 Champions League.
Chelsea have two wins out of three in this year’s Champions League after home triumphs over Benfica (1-0) and Ajax (5-1). That followed an opening 3-1 loss at Bayern Munich.
But unlike past Qarabag teams, this one has much more about them and the hosts also have six points after a surprise 3-2 win at Benfica and a 2-0 home success over Copenhagen.
They lost 3-1 at Athletic Club last time but sitting 13th in the 36-team table after three games shows they’re no mugs.
How to watch Qarabag v Chelsea
Qarabag v Chelsea kicks off at 5.45pm GMT on Wednesday, November 5.
The game will be shown live on Discovery+ and TNT Sports 2, with coverage starting from 5pm.
BBC Radio 5 Live will provide full match commentary.
Qarabag team news
Portuguese midfielder Leandro Andrade is a player Chelsea must watch.
The 26-year-old has five goals in nine European appearances this season and that includes strikes against both Benfica and Athletic Club so he’s brought it to the league phase too.
Boss Gurban Gurbanov has no major fitness concerns although there is a slight doubt over Musa Gurbanli (knee).
Qarabag expected line-up
(4-2-3-1) Kochalski; Matheus Silva, Mustafazade, Medina, Jafarguliyev; Bicalho, Jankovic; Leandro Andrade, Kady, Zoubir; Duran
Chelsea team news
Cole Palmer again misses out due to a groin injury while Levi Colwill, Benoit Badiashile and Dario Essugo remain sidelined.
Maresca could give a Champions League debut to fit-again Liam Delap while this may be a good opportunity to start exciting Brazilian prospect Estevao.
There could be an element of rotation so Joao Pedro, who got the winner at Spurs, may start from the bench.
Chelsea expected line-up
(4-2-3-1) Sanchez; Gusto, Adarabioyo, Chalobah, Cucurella; Lavia, Caicedo; Estevao, Fernandez, Gittens; Guiu
Qarabag v Chelsea stats
– The teams’ only previous matches came in the 2017/18 group stage, Chelsea following a 6-0 victory at Stamford Bridge in what was Qarabag’s first game in the Champions League proper with a 4-0 success in Azerbaijan.
– Qarabag have lost all seven games against English teams, the last six without scoring. They went down 0-3 at Tottenham Hotspur on Matchday 1 of last season’s UEFA Europa League, making it 18 goals conceded in those six games.
– This is Qarabag’s 12th successive season in a UEFA group stage/league phase. They lost seven of their eight games (W1) in last season’s Europa League to finish in 36th place in the league phase.
– Despite losing 1-3 at Athletic Club on Matchday 3, Qarabag have beaten Benfica (3-2 a) and Copenhagen (2-0 h) in this season’s league phase; they had never previously won a match in the Champions League proper.
– Including qualifying, Qarabag have won seven of their nine Champions League matches this season (L2), including three of the four at home (L1).
– Chelsea have won 14 of their last 16 European matches (L2), and 12 of the last 13 in the group stage/league phase – the exception a 3-1 Matchday 1 loss at Bayern Munich.
– Chelsea have scored in their last 18 European games. None of Chelsea’s last 51 European fixtures have finished scoreless.
Qarabag v Chelsea predictions
Gone are the days when Chelsea would just rock up against these opponents and rack up four or five with ease.
Qarabag need to be judged on their exploits in this year’s competition and that means Maresca’s men need to be careful.
They should win but the 1/3 won’t float many punters’ boats.
However, The Horsemen have netted six goals in their three matches so far and that gives us a chance to boost the basic win price.
Chelsea to win and both teams to score is a much more enticing 17/10.
Marescao will hopefully unleash teenage star Estevao and the forward is worth a punt at 6/1 to score the opening goal.