With another win, the Patriots’ likelihood of
inched ahead for both the computer simulators and oddsmakers. No surprise there. Every week without a hiccup solidifies the ground under their feet.
But what this week’s numbers show was that both the computers and the wise guys were expecting/projecting the Chiefs to beat the Bills. When that didn’t happen, even though the Patriots beat the Falcons, New England’s AFC title chances got worse.
ESPN’s Football Power Index now has Buffalo as the favorite to finish with the best record and win the Super Bowl.
Washington Post
The Post’s computers simulate the season’s remaining games 25,000 times. This is what it is projecting for the Patriots.
Average Wins: 11.9
Makes the Postseason: 92%
Win Division: 40%
Top seed in AFC: 16%
Win Super Bowl: 3%
ESPN’s FPI
ESPN’s Football Power Index predicts each team’s record but their formula allows for fractional wins — for example, the Bills are projected to go 12.0-5-0.
The Patriots are projected to go 11.2-5.7.
It gives the Patriots a:
80.6% chance to make the playoffs
40.5% chance to win the AFC East
42.5% chance to make the Divisional Playoff Round
17.3% chance to make the conference finals
6.6% to make the Super Bowl
2.7 % chance to win the Super Bowl
The Athletic
The Athletic uses Austin Mock’s NFL Projection Model to make its best guess for the final playoff picture.
Projected Record:
12-5 (second seed AFC)
It gives the Patriots a:
97% chance to make the playoffs
61% chance to win the AFC East
28% to earn the AFC’s first-round bye
8 % chance to win the Super Bowl
PlayoffStatus.com
Make the Playoffs: 96%
Second Round: 61%
Make the AFC Championship: 33%
Make it to Super Bowl: 17%
Win Super Bowl: 8%
BetMGM
The Las Vegas bookmakers are not trying to guess accurately in terms of eventual results as much as they are trying to spread bets around to the most teams, allowing them to make the most money.
BetMGM, the casino’s online sports betting arm, offers bets on the Patriots who are:
+2800 to win the Super Bowl
+1200 to win AFC Championship
+450 to be AFC No. 1 seed
+135 to win the AFC East
-1000 to make the playoffs
+650 to miss the playoffs
MGM also has awards odds with:
Drake Maye is +450 for AP MVP
Mike Vrabel is +170 for AP Coach of the Year
Stefon Diggs is +2500 AP Comeback Player of the Year
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