Leeds United are set for another Premier League away day as they look for three points to boost their survival hopes.
And it will see Leeds take on Nottingham Forest, who have had an incredible rise from Championship relegation candidates to European qualifiers in the space of just four years.
Forest have set the blueprint on how to stay up in the Premier League, in terms of splashing money to survive, spending an incredible £170million in 2022-23 as they came 16th.
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Leeds have somewhat followed suit this season, with owners 49ers Enterprises spending £100million on a raft of new players for manager Daniel Farke – but it was nothing like Sunday’s opponents’ first splurge, and the reason why has been laid bare by TBR Football’s financial expert, Adam Williams.
Leeds chairman Paraag Marathe attends their home Premier League win vs West Ham United
Photo by Robbie Jay Barratt – AMA/Getty Images
The intriguing factor here is that Forest and Leeds are both extremely similar, and yet at the same time, have operated completely differently.
Both are historically huge clubs, with Forest’s two European Cup wins in 1979 and 1980 propelling them to stardom, while Leeds were domestically successful during the 1970s and 1990s.
However, Leeds struggled to remain in the Premier League upon promotion in 2020 and have only just returned to the top-flight, while Forest’s ‘all guns blazing’ approach has seen them come out of a risky decision on the right side by qualifying for the Europa League.
Leeds – most expensive signings, summer 2025 Nottingham Forest – most expensive signings, summer 2022
Noah Okafor – £18m Morgan Gibbs-White – £25m + £17.5m in add-ons
Anton Stach – £17.4m Taiwo Awoniyi – £17.5m
Lucas Perri – £13.9m + £1.7m in add-ons Neco Williams – £16m
And TBR Football’s financial expert Adam Williams has detailed why Leeds’ owners have taken a calculated £100million gamble instead of betting the ranch. He said: “Forest’s was a very high-tariff recruitment strategy when they were promoted at the end of 2021-22.
“It could have very easily gone wrong. And for every Forest, there is a club who spends similarly and will still go down.
“Leeds had lost a lot of money going into the summer, which reduced the headroom under PSR. And while I don’t buy the narrative that they have ‘maxed out’ their PSR allowance, that did limit what they were able to do over the summer somewhat.
“All that said, let’s not lose sight of the fact that they have spent almost £100m – and that’s £100m net. On top of that, they already had a sizable wage bill, which was £84m in the first season after relegation and will have stayed very high by Championship standards last season too.
“So the 49ers – who are all about operating cash flow – have looked at it, done the risk-benefit analysis and decided this is the strategy that balances A) giving them the best chance of staying up, B) doesn’t put Leeds at risk financially if they are relegated and C) means the owners don’t have to put any more additional capital into the club.
“It’s a clinical way of looking at it, but the 49ers are a private equity firm. They are analytical by their very nature.”
It’s a strategy that appears to be working so far, but results must improve after a slight drop-off in performances in recent weeks.
Daniel Farke prepares for Leeds vs Bournemouth in the Premier League
Photo by Michael Driver/MI News/NurPhoto via Getty Images
Leeds’ spending has done them well so far and Forest win would be massive
In each of the last two full Premier League seasons, all three promoted sides have been relegated from the top-flight without a whimper.
Luton Town, Burnley and Sheffield United all went through the trap door in 2024, whilst Ipswich Town, one-time Premier League winners Leicester City and Southampton followed suit last season.
But that has changed this time around. Notably, Sunderland have started extremely well and sit fourth in the Premier League on 18 points after 10 games, aiming to buck the trend – and even Leeds and Burnley sit on 11 and 10 points respectively, in 16th and 17th place.
It will be tough for all three to remain in the division, but Leeds have shown that spending a decent amount of money whilst being calculated can work in their favour.
However, their game against Forest on Sunday is undeniably huge. Win, and Daniel Farke’s men will record their second away win of the season after Leeds beat Wolves in September, taking them eight points clear of Forest. But lose, and more of Farke’s problems will arise.
With Burnley and West Ham facing each other at the weekend, it’s a schedule that is clad with six-pointers and if Leeds can win, they could go as high as 12th in the table should results go their way.