The Patriots are heading down to Central Florida, where a rested Tampa Bay Buccaneers team awaits them for a Sunday afternoon showdown at Raymond James Stadium.
Although it extended its winning streak to six games last week, New England is coming off a one-point home victory over the Falcons that almost felt like a loss, leading to head coach Mike Vrabel saying, "We're going to learn from winning so that we don't have to learn from losing."
As much as you want to keep an ugly win, which was still a win, in perspective, we're leading off our preview for the second consecutive week discussing QB Drake Maye taking sacks at nearly a league-high rate. After being sacked six times last week, Maye has now been sacked 34 times this season, the second-most in the NFL behind only Titans rookie Cam Ward (38). Maye is being sacked on 10.7% of his drop-backs, 30th among 32 qualified QBs, and has the second-highest pressure-to-sack rate (27.4%).
The second-year quarterback has put himself in the MVP conversation due to his outstanding play. However, the final hurdle in his development is managing his time in the pocket more wisely. To his credit, Maye has been very good at moving the chains after taking a sack. Following his six sacks last week, the Patriots offense moved the chains four times, which is remarkable. Still, being behind schedule is a tough way to live in the NFL, and some of the sacks on the quarterback seem avoidable.
"A lot of the sacks I have taken have been my fault," Maye said this week. "Just trying to get the football to the guys running the routes because they're better players than I am with the ball in their hands. It's just knowing the faster that I get the ball out and into their hands the better it is for the guys up front, for me, and the Patriots organization. At the end of the day, try to stick the point of the play and if something breaks down, just keep playing like myself."
This week, Maye will face the blitz-happy Bucs defense under head coach Todd Bowles. Tampa Bay has the fourth-highest pressure rate (39.8%), the seventh-highest blitz rate (35%), and is tied for eighth in sacks (25). The Bucs come after quarterbacks; it's Bowles' thing. Last Sunday, another pressure-heavy defense in Atlanta threw the kitchen sink at the Patriots with 23 blitzes on 40 drop-backs (57.5%). Although he's been good against the blitz this season, you know Tampa Bay is watching Maye take 12 combined sacks over the last two games, some of which were his own doing, and is preparing to come after him on Sunday.
From a Patriots perspective, seeing how Maye responds is the fun part about him hitting some adversity. The Pats QB is very good at taking coaching to improve week-to-week, so there's little doubt that Vrabel and OC Josh McDaniels are working with him tirelessly on taking fewer sacks to avoid putting the offense behind the sticks. In Tampa Bay, Maye will face one of the league's best pass rushes — we'll see how he does.
Let's break down the chess match between the Patriots and Buccaneers ahead of Sunday's trip to Tampa Bay for a Week 10 tilt.
**Patriots Offense Key: Prep for Bucs HC Todd Bowles' Exotic Blitz Package**
The words that come to mind when thinking about the Bucs head coach as a defensive schemer are pressure, pressure, and more pressure.
Tampa Bay's defense ranks seventh in total DVOA (sixth against the run, seventh against the pass), and Bowles is very good at disguising blitzes. Unlike other defensive schemes with one or two base coverages, the Bucs don't have many coverage tendencies, with the sixth-highest disguised coverage rate in the NFL (25.5%). Tampa Bay's most used coverage is cover-three, but they only call it 33.1% of the time, which ranks near the middle of the pack. This is the definition of a "spin the dial" defense with coverage and pressures coming from all different directions.
As for their personnel, NT Vita Vea is an elite interior rusher, while EDGE Yaya Diaby leads the team in pressures (28). The Bucs also have a great secondary: CB Jamel Dean is Pro Football Focus's top-ranked corner, fourth-year CB Zyon McCollum is solid on the other side, and NCB Jacob Parrish is a promising rookie who was one of my draft crushes. At safety, Antione Winfield Jr. is an elite ball-hawker, and Tykee Smith is a great blitzer and run defender in the box – this is a very good defense.
Sunday's game for QB Drake Maye isn't a matter of if he'll be under pressure, but rather a chess match of how he can handle pressure. For example, Bowles is well-known for running his pressure package out of mug fronts, where he has two standup linebackers line up in the A-Gaps to simulate pressure. At the snap, LBs Lavonte David and Sirvocea Dennis play a cat-and-mouse game with the offensive line.