The Chiefs’ playoff picture
As it stands right now, Kansas City has a 78% chance to make the playoffs, a 28% chance to win the AFC West, only a 4% chance to earn the AFC’s single bye, and a 7% chance to win Super Bowl LX.
To be sure, these numbers aren’t particularly encouraging. When we began publishing these playoff summaries on November 8 of last season, the Chiefs were 8-0 — and had a greater than 99% chance to make the playoffs, a 97% chance to win the AFC West, an 82% chance to earn the AFC bye, and a 19% chance to win Super Bowl LIX.
But after Sunday’s 28-21 loss to the Bills dropped the team to 5-4, plenty of fans have assumed Kansas City has no chance to even make the postseason. These probabilities show us there’s still a good chance to make the postseason — and even at two games behind Denver, there’s a fighting chance to win the division, too.
The playoff calculator allows us to assume the outcomes of remaining games and see how it changes the odds. For now, we’ll mostly focus on what’s in the team’s control; it’s still too early for complex scenarios.
Let’s dig in.