An injury update on Sunderland defender Omar Alderete
Sunderland sit fourth in the Premier League table after their first ten fixtures
The ten-game mark of any season is often seen as an appropriate moment to step back and take stock, a large enough sample to start making judgements on how good or otherwise a team really is.
A cursory glance at the Premier League table tells you that so far, Sunderland's return to the big time is going better than anyone could have dared wish for even taking into account the most ambitious summer transfer window in the club's recent history. In an interview on Monday Night Football, Kyril Louis-Dreyfus pondered aloud the possibility of going into the January transfer window aiming for a top-ten finish. That Sunderland have established themselves as a competitive top-tier side is clear from their results, but just how sustainable is this start? Thanks to data from Opta, we've taken a close look at where the Black Cats are excelling and where they might need to improve if they are to avoid a dip in form somewhere along the line...
The platform behind Sunderland's early success
That Sunderland have limited their opponent to an XG under 1 in half of their Premier League games so far this season tells you exactly why they have been able to confound pre-season predictions that they would struggle to make the step up the top tier. That one of those games was away at Chelsea, and another when they played an hour with ten men against Aston Villa, underlines it.
Sunderland's 18-point haul is no fluke, it is a reflection of a side that is exceptionally good at limiting the opposition from creating clear chances even in games where they are dominating the ball. At face value, some of Sunderland's defensive statistics might look a little concerning - they've faced the sixth-most shots in the division (129) and sit 12th for shots on target faced (42). They've also allowed the opposition 265 touches inside their box, the third highest across the division. What's notable, though, is how rarely that leads to a significant chance. Sunderland's XG against is, remarkably, the fourth best in the division according to Opta data. Only Manchester City, Newcastle United and Arsenal have a better record to date. The average XG of each shot Sunderland faces is 0.09; only Arsenal's is lower. Sunderland have signed a fine goalkeeper and that has helped, but they are very good at defending their box and forcing the opposition to take shots from areas where they are comfortable defending. Sunderland's summer focus on athletic, physical players is being reflected in their performances. No team has won a higher % of their ground duels, they have made the third-most clearances in the division and the sixth-most blocks.
It is also helping them ensure that despite inevitably facing a lot of set piece situations, few are leading to goals. Sunderland have conceded just twice so far from set plays, and their XG against from those situations is the sixth-best in the division. Given Sunderland are a team generally having less of the ball and territory than their opposition, that is impressive. Arsenal will be Sunderland's biggest test yet but the performance at Stamford Bridge showed that the Black Cats have a very strong defensive structure. If they maintain this level of resilience, the reality is that they are easily going to pick up enough points to stay clear of trouble.
The area where Sunderland are clearly still developing
There's a reason, however, that Opta have Sunderland 13th in their expected table (based on XG data for the season so far) and are currently predicting a 14th-placed finish for the Black Cats. Part of that will be based on a fixture list that will continue to get more difficult, but it's also a reflection of the fact that Sunderland are at this stage less impressive as an attacking force.
This isn't really a criticism at this stage and shouldn't be taken as such - Sunderland were never going to become a top Premier League side overnight and in prioritising their defensive structure they've done exactly the right thing to avoid the key mistake of promoted sides over the last couple of years. Leeds United have taken a similar approach under a manager known for his preference to play open, attacking football, prioritising physicality in the transfer market and so far being rewarded with similarly impressive defensive numbers. If there is an area that could lead to a dip in results, however, it's clearly Sunderland's attacking play. Their XG of 10.01 is 15th in the Premier League, and their tally of 28 shots on target is the second lowest in the division. Their tally of 179 touches inside the opposition box is the third lowest in the division. No team is more dependent on set pieces for their attacking threat, with 43.95% of Sunderland's XG this season coming from dead-ball situations. Again, using set pieces is a smart and pragmatic way for a promoted team to find an edge and there's no reason to think their threat from these situations will wane. They specifically targeted aerially strong players in the summer and the quality of delivery from corners or long throws in Xhaka, Mukiele and Le Fée is very good. To maintain a top-half place, however, they will likely have to get better at creating chances. Monday night's game is probably a case in point, where Sunderland dominated the last hour of the game but created their most notable chance through the second phase of a set play as Xhaka crossed for Mukiele.
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Taking stock
It has been a brilliant start to the campaign, and Sunderland deserve huge credit for getting their summer planning so spot on. They've quickly built a competitive side that looks comfortable at the level, and put the platforms in place for a strong debut campaign. A fixture list growing in difficulty and the reality of losing around seven senior players during the Africa Cup of Nations means that a dip in form still feels like an inevitability at some stage. A significant slump feels equally unlikely, however. These numbers back up what fans are seeing weekly, a team with an impressive spirit and a strong understanding of their roles. If Le Bris can find a way to start adding new layers to their build-up play and to get more players in the opposition box without undoing that defensive solidity, this could yet be a top-half season. To be even discussing that possibility feels surreal, and tells you everything you need to know about the opening ten games.
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