Can Sunderland maintain their strong start? What the data tells us
Sunderland drew 1-1 against Everton on Monday, but how did the result affect their 'xG for'?
The Black Cats fell behind to a 15th-minute Iliman Ndiaye goal, but clawed themselves level with a Granit Xhaka strike just after half-time. As a result, Sunderland remain in the top four with 18 points from 10 games so far, losing just twice - including only once in their last eight. Of course, their tally of 12 goals scored is distinctly mid-table, with their defensive record of just eight goals conceded the second-best in the Premier League behind only Arsenal (3), and very much carrying them so far.
But is 12 goals a fair reflection of Sunderland’s attacking play so far, or have they underperformed their xG?
Sunderland’s ‘xG for’ compared to Premier League rivals
Below are the 20 Premier League teams ranked by their ‘xG for’ stat, according to FBref data.
Crystal Palace: 18.2
Man City: 17.8
Man Utd: 17.5
Chelsea: 17.1
Arsenal: 16.9
Liverpool: 16.9
Brighton: 16.2
Brentford: 13.9
Everton: 13.4
Newcastle United: 12.4
Leeds United: 12.0
Bournemouth: 11.6
Nottingham Forest: 11.0
Fulham: 10.3
Tottenham Hotspur: 10.1
sunderland">Sunderland: 9.8
Wolves: 9.4
West Ham United: 9.3
Aston Villa: 7.5
Burnley: 7.1
Only Wolves, West Ham, Aston Villa and Burnley have generated less xG than Sunderland’s 9.8, which gives them an overperformance of 2.2. The Black Cats have only scored once from outside the box, but have scored four headers - only Brighton, Tottenham, Chelsea (all 5) and Arsenal (7) have scored more - with headed goals usually carrying a lower xG value than those scored with the feet.
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As mentioned, it’s Sunderland’s rock-solid defence which is making them so effective in the Premier League so far. Regis Le Bris’ men have allowed just 11.3 xGA so far, which is the fourth-best record in the top-flight behind only Man City (9.6), Newcastle United (8.7) and runaway leaders Arsenal (5.6). Sunderland have outperformed their xGA by 3.3, thanks in no small part to goalkeeper Robin Roefs making 34 saves to the tune of 2.68 goals prevented so far (FotMob).
What next for Sunderland?
While coming from behind to earn a draw is always a good result in the Premier League, Sunderland may be wondering if they could have taken more against Everton, especially considering they outshot the Toffees 17-8. Le Bris could particularly regret that draw by the end of the week, with Sunderland hosting rampant Premier League leaders Arsenal on Saturday. The Gunners head north on a run of 10 consecutive victories across all competitions, conceding just one goal during that time. Mikel Arteta’s side are already six points clear at the top of the table.
Following the November international break, Sunderland travel to Fulham before hosting high-flying Bournemouth.
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