We Green Bay Packer fans have spent a lot of time this season trying to figure out if our team is “a legitimate Super Bowl contender”. The good news? They are. The bad news? So is just about everybody else.
Halfway into the season, 17 of the 32 teams have at least five wins, and winning records. Look around the league. See any great teams? Nope. There are lots of good teams. Or, at least, they can be good on a given day. Even the teams with losing records are pretty good. How else to explain the Packers losing to the Browns? Did you see how good Arizona looked Monday night in dominating the Cowboys?
Last week alone, four of the so-called top teams in the league were knocked off. Packers lost to the Panthers, Lions to the Vikings, Chiefs to the Bills, Colts to the Steelers. Look at the NFC North standings. A mere one and a half games separate all four teams. In the NFC West, three teams have six wins.
The National Football League has long strived for parity. The late commissioner Pete Rozelle didn’t like to use that word. He would always use the term “competitive balance”, because he believed parity was a synonym for mediocrity. But even though the league rigged the system to promote equality, they never really achieved it. There have been dynasties winning championships for the last 65 years. The Packers in the 1960s, the Dolphins and the Steelers in the ‘70s, the 49ers in the ‘80s, the Cowboys and Broncos in the ‘90s, the Patriots in the 2000s, the Chiefs in the 2020s.
But something feels different this season. No game feels safe. No team plays well consistently. Could it be that, at long last, Pete Rozelle’s dream has come true? His goal of complete competitive balance has arrived? Maybe it was inevitable. The league format is designed to bring the good teams down, and lift the bad teams up. The draft, the schedule, the salary cap, it’s all a plot to eliminate dominance. At long last, it seems to be working. Even franchises that were woeful and hopeless for so many years, such as the Lions and Bears and Jaguars and Texans, finally accumulated so many picks at the top of the draft, and amassed so much cap money to splurge on free agents, they have lifted themselves into playoff contention.
The latest poster child is the Carolina Panthers. They have been the laughing stock of the league in recent years. But they took quarterback Bryce Young with the number one overall pick. They have a budding superstar running back in Rico Dowdle. They used first round draft picks on receivers Tetairoa McMillan and Xavier Legette. Tackle Ikem Ikwonu, corner Jaycee Horn, and defensive tackle Derrick Brown, all Pro Bowl caliber talents, were all first round picks. Don’t look now, but the Panthers are 5-4, and just got done outplaying the top seeded Packers at Lambeau. Nobody’s laughing at them anymore. You don’t think this team has as good a shot at the playoffs as anybody?
The Denver Broncos rose from the ashes in two years. The Patriots went on a free agent shopping spree, and hit on Drake Maye, and have suddenly returned to the top of the AFC East. Even the forlorn Miami Dolphins, destroyed by injury and poor quarterback play, sprang up and pounded a talented Falcons team 34-10 in week eight.
What has been the catalyst to all this balance? I have a theory. I believe it is because of the influx of so many good, young quarterbacks into the league. Including the aforementioned Young and Maye, along with CJ Stroud, Bo Nix, Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Jaxon Dart, Michael Penix, Sam Darnold and Brock Purdy, they’ve all proven they can pilot their teams to impressive wins given an adequate supporting cast. In Minnesota, JJ McCarthy got off to a slow start, but he sure looked capable leading the Vikings over the Lions on the road last Sunday. Put these rapidly improving young pups into the mix with all the great veteran signal callers, and suddenly you have a league bursting with unpredictability and instability. Is it mediocrity? Maybe it doesn’t matter, so long as there is excitement and suspense, qualities this season has certainly thus far delivered.
So what does all this mean for the Green Bay Packers this season? A lot of close games decided in the final seconds. Outcomes determined by critical injuries, or lack of them, to key players, officiating calls, special teams, turnovers, and just the bounce of the ball. It’s not hard to see Matt LaFleur’s team in the Super Bowl. It’s also not hard to see them missing the playoffs altogether. In this year of uncertainty, all outcomes are plausible.
The Packers host the Eagles Monday night. You can be excused if you have no idea how to feel about this game. Both teams have played beautifully and terribly, often within the same game. Chances are, we’ll all be a nervous wreck by the final minutes.
Thanks for nothing, Pete Rozelle.