We look ahead to Sunday’s Premier League game at Selhurst Park with our Crystal Palace vs Brighton prediction and preview.
Crystal Palace’s brilliant home form puts them as clear favourites in the eyes of the Opta supercomputer, earning all three points in 48.7% of simulations.
In the last two seasons, the only Englishman to outscore Danny Welbeck (16) in the Premier League is Ollie Watkins (17). The Brighton forward has six goals in his last five appearances – only Erling Haaland has more (7) in this timeframe (27 September onwards).
Crystal Palace have 16 points in 10 Premier League matches this season (W4 D4 L2), an improvement of nine points on last season’s tally at this stage (7). It’s their most at this point of a top-flight campaign since 1991-92 (17).
The Brighton-Crystal Palace rivalry – often referred to as the A23 or M23 derby – may not be the most famous in English football, but it is becoming a more intense and significant fixture with each passing season.
Both clubs have spent long periods in lower divisions, often sharing their spells in competitions below the Premier League, but they are now both considered real challengers to the established ‘Big Six’.
Brighton have finished in the top half of the table in three of the last four seasons, while Crystal Palace won their first ever major trophy earlier this year after beating Manchester City in the FA Cup final.
They are separated by around 40 miles in geographical terms, but just one point separates them in the Premier League table heading into Matchday 11, with Crystal Palace ninth and Brighton 10th.
Premier League table
Crystal Palace recorded a league double over Brighton last season for the first time since 1932-33 in the Division Three South.
This fixture has guaranteed goals when played at Selhurst Park in the Premier League, with both teams netting in each of their eight meetings there in the competition.
There’s every chance that could halt this weekend given Crystal Palace’s strength at home, however.
They haven’t lost any of their last 11 Premier League matches at Selhurst Park (W6 D5), the longest ongoing home unbeaten run in the division. Only between February and December 1990 have they had a longer run without losing at home in the top flight (17 games).
This has contributed greatly to their overall record in the Premier League this season. Their return of 16 points from 10 games represents a nine-point improvement on their tally at the same stage last season.
It is the most points they have a earned at this point in a top-flight campaign since 1991-92 (17).
Only four teams have conceded fewer goals than Crystal Palace’s nine in the Premier League this season, and they have benefitted massively from being able to start the same back five – and back six including goalkeeper Dean Henderson – in each league game of 2025-26.
Crystal Palace xGA map
Brighton haven’t been quite as tight at the back, letting in 15 goals, but they restricted Leeds United to 0.5 expected goals (xG) last time out, their best underlying defensive performance since February.
Nonetheless, were they to keep a clean sheet at Selhurst Park, it would be the first time they had recorded consecutive shutouts in the Premier League since that very same month.
This game may well be decided by two in-form strikers – Jean-Philippe Mateta and Danny Welbeck.
Nine of Mateta’s last 10 Premier League goals have been scored in London, with the Frenchman netting four in his last two at Selhurst Park.
He has six goals in 10 games this season, with only Andrew Johnson in 2004-05 (7) ever scoring more in Crystal Palace’s opening 10 matches of a Premier League season.
Welbeck, meanwhile, appears to be ever improving as a goalscorer, despite celebrating his 35th birthday later this month.
Go Deeper:
In the last two seasons, the only Englishman to outscore Welbeck (16) in the Premier League is Ollie Watkins (17). The Brighton forward has netted six goals in his last five appearances, with only Erling Haaland netting more (7) in this timeframe (27 September onwards).
Danny Welbeck shots 2025-26
Welbeck is forming a strong partnership in attack with a player 13 years his junior, Yankuba Minteh.
Minteh has been involved in 14 Premier League goals in his last two seasons (7 goals, 7 assists), the most of any player currently aged 21 or younger in the competition.
Adam Wharton recovered from illness to appear from the bench in Crystal Palace’s win against AZ in the UEFA Conference League on Thursday, but Eddie Nketiah will be unavailable until after the international break having injured his hamstring for the second time this season.
Brighton could be without a host of players, including Kaoru Mitoma, Joel Veltman, James Milner and Brajan Gruda.
Crystal Palace won both Premier League meetings with Brighton last season, as many times as they had beaten them in their previous 12 (D6 L4).
Brighton are winless in six Premier League away games against Crystal Palace (D5 L1). They lost this exact fixture 2-1 last season but haven’t lost at the Eagles in consecutive campaigns since 1985-86 and 1986-87.
Both teams have scored in all eight Premier League meetings between Crystal Palace and Brighton at Selhurst Park – only Wolves at home to Newcastle (10) has been played more without either side keeping a clean sheet in the competition.
Crystal Palace were victorious in 48.7% of the Opta supercomputer’s simulations, making them comfortable favourites for this.
A draw was the next most common outcome, occurring in 25.7% of sims, while the chance of a Brighton win sits narrowly behind at 25.6%.
Crystal Palace vs Brighton Prediction Opta
Crystal Palace: Dean Henderson, Marc Guéhi, Maxence Lacroix, Chris Richards, Tyrick Mitchell, Daichi Kamada, Jefferson Lerma, Daniel Muñoz, Yeremy Pino, Ismaïla Sarr, Jean-Philippe Mateta.
Head coach: Oliver Glasner
Brighton: Bart Verbruggen, Ferdi Kadıoğlu, Lewis Dunk, Jan-Paul van Hecke, Mats Wieffer, Yasin Ayari, Carlos Baleba, Diego Gómez, Georginio Rutter, Danny Welbeck.
Head coach: Fabian Hürzeler
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic men’s and women’s football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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