Advantage Buccaneers: Pass Rush
Prior to taking their much-needed week off, the Bucs had seen their pass rush heat up with 15 sacks over the previous three outings, tied for the most in the NFL in that span. Even after an idle week, Tampa Bay is still tied for eighth in total sacks, with 25, and its sacks per pass play rate of 8.96% ranks 10th in the NFL. A total of 15 different players have combined to produce those 25 sacks for the Bucs, including seven who have 2.0 or more. Meanwhile, the only real struggle for a Patriots offense that has been among the league's best in 2025 has been in pass protection, as Drake Maye has been sacked 34 times, or close to four times per game. New England's sacks per pass play rate allowed of 13.23% is second to last in the NFL.
Advantage Patriots: Third Down Defense
One season after leading the NFL with a franchise record 50.9% conversion rate on third downs, the Buccaneers' offense has not been able to duplicate that sort of success in 2025, in part due to a rash of injuries. The Bucs have converted on 36.3% of their third-down tries, which is tied for 25th in the league, and the issue has been more troublesome of late. Tampa Bay succeeded on four of 16 third-down tries (25.0%) in Detroit in Week Seven and three of 13 (23.1% in New Orleans in Week Eight. That has contributed to some slow starts on offense, as in five of their eight games the Bucs have successfully converted just one third down prior to halftime. Unfortunately for the Buccaneers, the Patriots' defense has also been strong in this regard, allowing a third-down conversion rate of 33.7%, fourth best in the NFL.
X-Factor: Turnovers
In addition to its recent barrage of sacks, the Tampa Bay defense was beginning to produce a high number of turnovers prior to the bye week. The Buccaneers forced 10 turnovers in its last four games, including four in New Orleans in their most recent outing. Overall, Tampa Bay has scored 43 points off takeaways this season while giving up just 10 on giveaways. The Patriots have turned the ball over 11 games, tied for the 12th most in the NFL, though Maye has tossed just four interceptions, including one each in his last two outings.