The rise of Buffalo has completely changed the game in the AFC East. The Bills are riding a six-game winning streak, and they have gained significant momentum heading into Sunday’s game against the Miami Dolphins. For the bruised and frustrated Dolphins to have a chance, they will have to overcome their struggles in the red zone and a desperate, turnover-prone passing attack.
This isn’t just another divisional game; Miami must pressure the pocket and win the turnover battle even to have a shot at an upset. Otherwise, Buffalo’s potent offense is poised to dominate the contest.
Can the Dolphins Overcome Their Turnover Woes Against a Dominant Bills Team?
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Nov 3, 2024; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) greets Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) after a game at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-Imagn Images
First, let’s look at the numbers. The Buffalo Bills enter the matchup at 6-2, while the Miami Dolphins sit at a struggling 2-7. That gap alone illustrates the challenge ahead and explains the lopsided margin bettors expect.
Tua Tagovailoa has thrown 11 interceptions this year, and that lack of ball security is Miami’s clearest fault line. Any plan to topple Buffalo has to start with preventing turnovers. Additionally, Buffalo’s recent dominance over Miami has been absolute. The Bills have won 13 of the last 14 regular-season meetings, and that history only feeds the confidence in Orchard Park while putting immense pressure on the Dolphins to change the narrative.
The betting markets underscore this expectation, as Buffalo opened as a heavy favorite (≈-9.5). While upsets can happen, they demand flawless execution across all three phases of the game: offense, defense, and special teams. For Miami, it likely also requires forcing an early turnover to swing the win probability in their favor.
Head coach Mike McDaniel clearly feels that pressure. He has publicly framed his expectations around limiting turnovers, a stance that serves as both a tactical directive and a response to the mounting pressure on his job security. The coach is signaling urgency while trying to get cleaner decision-making from his quarterback. In his statements, McDaniel emphasized the immediate need to reduce giveaways, clearly stating what he expects from his starter and framing the challenge as a fixable yet urgent problem.
Ultimately, Miami can upset Buffalo, but the path is incredibly narrow. The Dolphins must protect the football, win the battle in the trenches, and convert on third downs. If they can force Josh Allen into a turnover or two, the game could compress into a shootout, giving Miami a chance to win with explosive plays. However, if they fail at any of those tasks, this will likely be another game controlled by Buffalo from start to finish. The analytics, the records, and the market all favor the Bills, but the Dolphins’ desperation and home-field advantage create a plausible, if unforgiving, path to an upset.