The NFL Week 10 slate has four teams on bye, and the split of contests is heavily slanted toward the 1:00 p.m. ET window, with seven games. Regardless, the NFL Week 10 late-afternoon slate—starting at 4:05 p.m. ET and including two games at 4:25 p.m. ET—offers gamblers some exciting player props. Two receiving props stand out as especially intriguing wagering options.
NFL Week 10 Player Props
Amon-Ra St. Brown (Detroit Lions - WR)
Over 79.5 Receiving Yards (-114) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Amon-Ra St. Brown hasn’t skipped a beat with a new offensive coordinator this season, after Ben Johnson joined the Bears to serve as their head coach. Instead, St. Brown has averaged 7.4 receptions per game and 79.4 receiving yards per game this year, up from last year’s 6.8 receptions per game and 74.3 receiving yards per game.
The Sun God’s underlying data is also superb. Among 79 wide receivers with at least 150 routes this year, ARSB is tied for 13th in air yards share (37.4%), fifth in target share (29.9%), tied for fourth in targets per route run (0.31) and fourth in first-read rate (40.4%).
Detroit’s top pass-catching weapon’s matchup is also tantalizing. The Commanders have allowed the second-most receiving yards per game (171.3) this season. Washington has also played man coverage at the eighth-highest rate (30.9%) and single-high coverage at the ninth-highest rate (55.9%) this year. The Sun God has eviscerated those coverages, recording 0.33 targets per route run and 3.14 yards per route run on 57 routes against man coverage and 0.28 targets per route run and 2.39 yards per route run against single-high coverage this season.
Washington’s defensive-minded head coach, Dan Quinn, hasn’t had much success against St. Brown, dating back to his time as the defensive coordinator for the Cowboys. St. Brown had four receiving yards the first time he faced Quinn, but he left the game early with a concussion. He had six receptions for 90 receiving yards in his second matchup against Quinn and eight receptions for 137 receiving yards against the veteran coach in the playoffs last season.
Six wide receivers have surpassed 79.5 receiving yards against the Commanders in nine games this year. St. Brown has exceeded 79.5 receiving yards in four of eight games this year, with a median of 81.5. Detroit’s stud wide receiver should be the latest to torch the Commanders for over 79.5 receiving yards on Sunday afternoon.
SANTA CLARA, CALIFORNIA - JANUARY 11: Kendrick Bourne #84 of the San Francisco 49ers celebrates a touchdown during the first quarter against the Minnesota Vikings during the NFC Divisional Round Playoff game at Levi's Stadium on January 11, 2020 in Santa Clara, California. (Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images)
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Kendrick Bourne (San Francisco 49ers - WR)
Over 32.5 Receiving Yards (-118) at BetMGM
Line shopping is a critical part of betting on player props, and Kendrick Bourne’s line of 32.5 receiving yards at BetMGM is a perfect example of that point. Bourne’s line is as high as 35.5 receiving yards at DraftKings Sportsbook as well as 34.5 at multiple other sportsbooks, making his line a relative bargain at BetMGM.
Bourne’s line isn’t particularly high at any of the sportsbooks because he’s served as an ancillary player for the 49ers lately, logging 34, 44 and 14 receiving yards in his last three games. Those showings come on the heels of back-to-back 142-yard receiving efforts against the Buccaneers and Rams, respectively.
Bourne flamed the Rams in Week 5. The 30-year-old wide receiver benefited from injuries ahead of him on the depth chart, pushing him up the passing-game hierarchy. He’ll have more target competition in the rematch with the Rams. Still, Bourne’s receiving line is low, and he’s cleared 32.5 receiving yards in five of eight games this year, with an average of 57.9 receiving yards per game, and a median of 36.
Bourne’s coverage data meshes well with the matchup against the Rams. Los Angeles has played zone coverage at the seventh-highest rate (77.5%) and single-high coverage at the eighth-highest rate (56.6%) this year. Bourne has tallied 0.18 targets per route run and 2.33 yards per route run on 175 routes against zone coverage and 0.17 targets per route run and 2.03 yards per route run on 108 routes against single-high coverage this year. Even if Bourne takes a backseat to Christian McCaffrey, Jauan Jennings and George Kittle, he should clear the low bar of 32.5 receiving yards against the Rams.