One week ago, the Minnesota Vikings had a 5% chance of making the playoffs, according to ESPN and The Athletic’s metrics.
Two Thursdays ago, Minnesota’s offense mustered only 10 points against the Los Angeles Chargers, while the defense gave up 37. They fell to 3-4, had injury and performance issues at quarterback, and faced a gauntlet of a schedule. There were questions about whether head coach Kevin O’Connell was handling the Vikings’ quarterback situation correctly and whether general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah made the right moves in the offseason.
Ten days later, they hit the road to face the Lions, coming off their bye, in J.J. McCarthy’s third career start. It was not an ideal situation.
Still, they pulled off the upset as 9.5-point underdogs. It was the second-largest upset of the weekend – the Carolina Panthers beat the Green Bay Packers as 13.5-point underdogs – and the team’s largest upset in 15 years. It was O’Connell’s second win against the Lions as head coach and the first win for the Vikings in Detroit since 2020.
After losing to the Lions twice last year, this was the game the front office built for this offseason. The offensive line, which they upgraded through the draft and free agency, was finally healthy. The defensive line, with new additions Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave, wreaked havoc all day with 11 tackles for loss and five sacks.
The win was a much-needed one after two consecutive losses. It put the season back on track and gave some hope to a struggling squad. It also showed the power of good coaching.
Facing a team like the Lions is daunting for a new quarterback like McCarthy, so O’Connell fit the scheme so his QB didn’t have to take over. He made some great plays, like running in a third-quarter touchdown to make it a two-possession game or finding Jalen Nailor for the game-sealing completion in the fourth. Still, it was more about finding Detroit’s weaknesses rather than letting McCarthy go all out.
Aidan Hutchinson is fresh off signing a $180 million extension, but the Vikings mostly neutralized him. O’Connell often ran right at him or froze him with option plays. The RPO is a new wrinkle the Vikings can use only when McCarthy is leading the offense.
It wasn’t the prettiest game, as the offense only averaged 4.4 yards per play, but it was clear there was a plan, and the Vikings executed on it.
On the defensive side, Brian Flores had the usually high-powered Lions offense in a fit. Sunday was Detroit’s sixth-worst performance by offensive success rate under Dan Campbell, with nearly half of their 11 drives ending without a first down. He dialed up constant pressure, getting to Jared Goff on 35.7% of his dropbacks, the highest rate the Lions have allowed since 2022.
Flores also got Jahmyr Gibbs in a position Detroit does not want him in: pass protection. Minnesota sent an extra rusher through the middle quite often, forcing Gibbs into blocking mode instead of leaking out into the flat or getting into space. He had one of his worst games as a pro thanks to Flores’ scheme.
If Sunday’s game showed anything, it’s that O’Connell and his staff are well-equipped to push a team like this to the playoffs, despite what happened in the first eight weeks. They know how to game-plan, especially against divisional foes, and they have the talent in-house to beat anyone.
There are some matchups to exploit going forward. Seven of Minnesota’s nine upcoming opponents are in the bottom half of the league in EPA per play on defense, and three of those (New York Giants, Dallas Cowboys, and Washington Commanders) are in the bottom five. That leaves plenty of room for the offense to succeed.
Particularly, there is ample opportunity for McCarthy to prove his worth over the next couple of weeks. The Baltimore Ravens have been susceptible through the air this season, giving up 250 passing yards per game (28th in the NFL). They’re finally a healthy defensive unit, so those numbers might get better, but they were also healthy in Week 1 when Josh Allen torched them for 394 yards and four total touchdowns.
The Chicago Bears have been a bit better in that area, conceding 237.6 yards through the air per game. However, they also just allowed Joe Flacco to throw a career-high 470 passing yards and score 42 points a week ago. Plus, McCarthy already beat them in his first career start, so they might have an easier time beating them at home in their rematch two weeks from now.
Getting a win last Sunday felt like a huge turning point for this Vikings season. They defeated a foe they couldn’t beat last year and instilled some hope in fans who may have lost it. The system that’s in place is the right one, and it’s proven time and time again, no matter who starts to doubt it.