It really says something about how badly the Mavericks are playing that the fan base can collectively pull the fire alarm before we’ve even reached Thanksgiving. But that’s what a loss to the no-good, very-bad, Zion Williamson-less New Orleans Pelicans will do. This isn’t breaking news, but the Mavericks are not in a good place, to the point it feels like the organization needs to make massive changes.
If this sounds like an overreaction only eight games into the season, consider how morose this team has looked since the opening night tipoff against the San Antonio Spurs. The Mavericks are 2-6 heading into Friday night’s matchup with Memphis, the worst in the Western Conference. They have the fifth-worst point differential in the league and the sixth-worst net rating. Two of their six losses were to teams with even worse net-ratings; Washington and New Orleans are a combined 3-13, and two of those three wins were on the Mavericks’ home floor.
How the Mavericks got to this point was predictable, even for the most strident optimist. Anthony Davis and Dereck Lively II are already hurt, and a lack of guard depth has doomed the offense to struggle. The Mavericks are dead last in offense, with a you-have-to-see-it-to believe-it 104.3 offensive rating that would even make teams from the mid-2000s blush. I looked it up: that 104.3 mark would have only ranked the Mavericks 15th in 2007. Dallas in the Year 2025 is sporting an offense that would have been mediocre in an era that was so devoid of offense the league bent the rules to juice the scoring. Let that sink in.
Nothing is really working. The Mavericks started the season with Cooper Flagg at point, and that lineup not surprisingly lacked any sort of spacing or shooting to grease the wheels for the double-big looks. Davis and Lively have both looked out of sorts when they’ve been on the floor, with Davis shooting more jumpers in the big lineups, floating more out to the perimeter, and just not playing engaged enough. Davis still can’t make 3s (27.3 percent on 2.2 attempts per game), and only after Lively’s injury was Davis forced to play the 5 full-time. His 2-point shooting numbers bumped back up as he got closer to the rim.
Meanwhile, Dallas is 20th in turnover rate, and Flagg has been inefficient as the lead ball-handler. While giving Flagg these reps are important for his development, there must be balance’ his shooting numbers skyrocket when he shares the floor with either of the healthy point guards (D’Angelo Russell or Brandon Williams).
Against the Pelicans on Wednesday, the Mavericks finally started the game with a true point guard (Russell), and Flagg’s game flowed much more smoothly while playing more off-ball. Of Flagg’s 19 shot attempts, 13 were in the paint, and although he missed plenty of good looks, the process was much more fluid. That doesn’t mean Jason Kidd and his staff need to abandon point-Cooper. Perhaps the play is to maximize Flagg’s time with the starters by putting him in the best position to succeed, then experiment with the bench and second units so Flagg could implement his point guard skills against backups with less pressure.
The big-versus-small lineup has revealed a puzzling weakness: Dallas can’t score in the paint. Despite having a surplus of forwards and centers, the Mavericks are last in the league in points in the paint differential. Some of the defeats down low have been embarrassing. They got pummeled 68-26 in the paint against the Spurs, and 72-26 against the Pistons. Davis, Lively, and Daniel Gafford being hurt certainly has contributed to that, but the Mavericks cannot reliably touch the paint with a live dribble. Countless possessions stall out near the elbow or free throw line extended, unable to bend or break the defense. It’s hard to score in the paint when you can’t even dribble in there, regardless of how big your centers are.
Elsewhere, Williams is the only reliable dribble penetrator, yet he’s only averaging 14 minutes per game. Here’s a “fun” exercise next time you turn on a game: keep track of how many times a Maverick dribbles in the paint. You’ll be stunned how rarely it happens, especially if you compare it to the opponent. The Mavericks are in the top 10 in share of shots from mid-range, as they repeatedly settle for long 2s when a possession stalls out after the ball hot-potatoes from the wing to the free throw line and then back out to the wing.
n the surface, things are better on the other side of the floor. Dallas has the sixth-best defense according to Cleaning the Glass. The double-big lineup still has trouble with teams that can space and keep Davis away from the paint, but in limited time (plus-3.7 in 54 possessions), the Flagg at point, Davis at power forward lineup sports a positive net-rating according to Cleaning the Glass, mostly thanks to the defense. Flagg is as advertised, and he and P.J. Washington cause a lot of havoc in the passing lanes and on the weakside for shot blocking.
Peel back some layers, though, and the defense isn’t stable. First off, the schedule has been cupcake. Dallas has beefed up its numbers against some absolutely dreadful offenses, including Indiana and New Orleans. Opponents are shooting 32.4 percent from 3, and when the pendulum swings to the other side, things could get ugly. To their credit, the Mavericks are tops of the league in the 3-point defense number that really matters: attempts. Dallas allows 31 percent of the opponent’s attempts as 3s, the best mark in the league according to Cleaning the Glass. That goes for corner 3s as well, where the Mavericks only allow a 6.7 percent share of total shots per game. The best way to defend 3s is to never let an opponent take them, because shooting variance can ebb and flow.
But here’s the flip side to that coin: the Mavericks are giving up a ton of shots at the rim. Dallas is 22nd in share of rim attempts allowed, which is bottom-third in the league. Opponents aren’t shooting a ton of 3s because they don’t have to. Why pass out for a three when you can get a layup? The Mavericks’ elite defense during the 2024 run to the NBA Finals was predicated on taking away the most consistent and efficient shots in basketball: layups and dunks. This team can’t seem to keep anyone in front of it, with Flagg and Washington perhaps overextended as point-of-attack helpers.
So, to recap: the Mavericks can’t score, they can’t shoot, they can’t dribble into the paint, they turn the ball over a lot, and their defense is precariously rocking in the ocean, waiting for a hot 3-point wave to come crashing down. It’s the kind of start to a season that deserves not only some serious self-reflection, but actual change. While it’s unlikely that Mavericks governor Patrick Dumont will remove general manager Nico Harrison from his post, if there’s one thing we know about this team, it’s that Flagg is the future, and every decision the organization makes should be with its prized rookie in mind. Every roster move, lineup choice, coaching change, staffing need, you name it—every choice the organization makes from ball boy to training staff needs to be filtered through what’s best for Flagg. Dallas needs to scrap whatever isn’t working, and refocus on a rebuild around its young, budding star.
Yes, that means Davis and Klay Thompson, who came off the bench for the first time as a Maverick on Wednesday, need to be thanked for their service and moved out. This would be a radical step, and there’s almost zero chance anything of this magnitude hits the roster before the season is over, but that’s how galling these first eight games have been. Watching the Mavericks try to win now and bring along their teenaged phenom is akin to watching a team try to play with one arm tied behind its back. The Mavericks control their 2026 draft choice, the last pick they have complete control over until 2031. Get what you can for the veterans who don’t match Flagg’s timeline, allow Kyrie Irving to take his time with rehab, and reset the expectations.
Fans aren’t stupid; they can handle a shift like this. Hell, most have been begging for it since the Mavericks sputtered out of the gate against the Spurs. Don’t gut the roster, and if nothing else, Kidd keeps his locker room connected. Just shift the priorities.
Again, the likelihood of any of this happening is between slim and none. Theoretically, things could improve enough that management continues on with the current plan, which Harrison has characterized as a three-to-five-year window of contention built around Davis’ remaining prime years. Dallas will get Davis back soon, then Lively. As bad as things have been, if the Mavericks had Davis around for the last week, they’re most likely 4-4, and some of this rage would probably be muted. The next two games (Memphis and Washington) present an opportunity to right the ship against teams that are on paper worse than Dallas, although we saw how the game against the Pelicans went.
Still, even those near the team sense that something is decidedly off. This team has a ways to go to be good, let alone among the sport’s elite. Sometimes, it isn’t wrong to act on a small sample size. In the Mavericks’ case, it might just be in the nick of time.
Author
Josh Bowe
Josh Bowe
View Profile
Josh Bowe covers the Mavericks for StrongSide. A former full-time journalist, Josh has covered the Mavericks as a writer and editor for Mavs Moneyball since 2011. He is also a co-host on the Pod Maverick podcast. A lifelong fan of basketball, Josh enjoys discussing the nuances of the game and shining a light on them.