Paul Merson believes Leeds United are in a “worrying” position as they prepare to face Nottingham Forest in the Premier League.
Leeds United head into their fixture against Nottingham Forest four points clear of the relegation zone and five points clear of their opponents, who are in 19th place.
However, since appointing Sean Dyche as manager, Forest have shown signs of finding their feet, having drawn with Manchester United in their last Premier League game.
Daniel Farke has a relatively clean bill of health heading into the game, although Dominic Calvert-Lewin faces a race to be fit as he recovers from injury.
Now, Paul Merson has delivered a pessimistic view of Leeds’ hopes of picking up a win, as he backed Forest to claw their way out of trouble under Dyche.
Paul Merson on punditry duty in the North London derby.
Photo by James Gill – Danehouse/Getty Images
Paul Merson delivers Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United prediction
Speaking to Sportskeeda, Merson backed the home side to secure a comfortable 2-0 victory, despite Forest’s growing injury list.
According to Merson, Leeds’ worrying away form will count against them, as the Whites and fellow relegation rivals Burnley begin to look nervously over their shoulders at the bottom three.
Merson said: “This is a huge game. If Nottingham Forest win, they are just two points behind Leeds United and one behind Burnley. When you look at it that way, you’d have to start worrying about the two newly-promoted teams.
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“Leeds haven’t been good away from home, except for that win against Wolves. I know they have had to play some tough fixtures on the road, but still.
Sean Dyche will play his football only one way, and that could actually be the best possible thing for Forest. Defensively, we know how strong they were last season. Dyche is proven, he won’t listen to the crowd, and he will get the job done.
Before concluding: “I don’t see any problem with Forest here. Fully expect them to win and draw everyone else back into a hotly contested relegation battle. 2-0.”
Daniel Farke looks on during a Premier League clash between Fulham and Leeds
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Leeds United and Nottingham Forest are two of the Premier League’s worst in front of goal
Games between two teams battling against relegation are often cagey affairs, and the Opta statistics from Leeds and Forest’s seasons to date show that these two teams have a problem in front of goal.
With both Leeds striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin and his Nottingham Forest counterpart, Chris Wood, doubtful for the game, whichever team holds their nerve in the final third could secure the three points.
After 10 games, Forest have the second-worst goals v expected goals differential in the competition, having scored 4.42 goals fewer than expected. Leeds are hot on their heels in third, with a differential of -3.38.
Metric Leeds Nottm Forest
Goals 9 7
Expected Goals 12.38 11.42
xG Differential -3.38 -4.42
Shots 122 117
Shots on Target 35 37
Conversion rate 7.38% 5.98%
Forest also have the worst shot conversion rate in the Premier League at just 5.98%. Leeds also rank third by this metric, with a conversion rate of 7.38%.
Based on these pre-game stats, the game could feature a lot of missed chances. However, sometimes the stats are wrong, and Leeds can find their groove in front of goal; they could leave Nottingham with a first top-flight win since the Don Revie era.