FOXBOROUGH – The Patriots are surpassing expectations.
At 7-2, they’re at the top of the AFC East and tied for the best record in the conference with Indianapolis and Denver. Although the team has faced an easier schedule, there are a handful of tough matchups left that will be good litmus tests for Mike Vrabel’s team.
One is this weekend when the Patriots take on the 6-2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This is a tough road game where the Patriots are considered underdogs. The last time they were underdogs on the road, they upset the Buffalo Bills.
Now, they have a chance to show everyone they’re a capable team that could make a run in the playoffs.
After standing pat at the NFL trade deadline, Vrabel and his staff move on with the roster they assembled this offseason. So far, the results have been great, but there’s still more work to do.
The Patriots face a tough test this weekend. Here are five things to watch:
Protecting Drake Maye
The Patriots need to do a better job of protecting Drake Maye. That’s an emphasis every week, but in Tampa Bay, it’s a must. The Buccaneers are tied for eighth in the NFL in sacks with 25. They’re sacking opposing quarterbacks on 8.96% of their dropbacks. That’s the tenth-best sack percentage in the league.
Meanwhile, the Patriots are allowing sacks on 13.23% of their dropbacks. That ranks them 31st in the NFL. Although some of these sacks are due to Maye extending the pocket, the Patriots need to do what they can to keep him upright in this game. The Buccaneers passing defense is ranked 22nd in the NFL, so this is a matchup Maye should win.
Run game
The Patriots didn’t make any move to add a running back at the deadline. It also remains to be seen if Rhamondre Stevenson returns after missing last weekend with a toe injury. The Patriots will likely lean on TreVeyon Henderson and Terrell Jennings once again. Last weekend, the team averaged 3.9 yards per carry against Atlanta.
Now, they’re about to face a better defense. The Buccaneers have the seventh-best run defense in the NFL. The unit is allowing 92.6 rush yards per game. Opposing teams are averaging just 3.88 yards per carry against Tampa Bay. The Patriots can’t be one-dimensional on Sunday.
Baker Mayfield vs. Patriots secondary
The Patriots head into this matchup with the No. 1-ranked run defense in the NFL, allowing an average of 75.4 rush yards per game. The team has still not allowed an opposing running back to surpass 50 yards in a game. This weekend, however, it’ll be more about stopping Baker Mayfield.
The Patriots pass defense ranks 19th in the NFL, while the Buccaneers pass offense ranks 13th. Mayfield is coming off back-to-back Pro Bowl seasons. He leads the NFL in fourth-quarter comebacks and game-winning drives (four) this season. Tampa Bay won’t have receivers Mike Evans or Chris Godwin, but rookie Emeka Egbuka (562 yards and five touchdowns) has been phenomenal.
Red zone defense
If the Patriots want to win on the road against a playoff-caliber team, their defense needs to be better in the red zone and near the end zone. The Patriots head into this matchup ranked last in the NFL in red zone defense, giving up scores 75% of the time. They’re statistically worse in goal-to-go situations, giving up scores 100% of the time.
This season, the Buccaneers haven’t been great inside the 20-yard line. Tampa Bay ranks 26th in the NFL in red zone offense, scoring on 50% of its opportunities. However, they have been more efficient when inside the 10-yard line on goal-to-go situations, scoring 77.8% of those trips. The Patriots need to keep them out of the end zone.
Turnovers
It’s not a secret. If you want to win on the road, you need to win the turnover battle. This is an area that the Buccaneers specialize in. They enter this weekend ranked fourth in the NFL in turnover differential (+7). They have 12 takeaways, compared to five total turnovers.
The Patriots are even with a 0-turnover differential. They have 10 takeaways and 10 turnovers. The Buccaneers are 6-0 this season when they have one or zero turnovers. They’re 0-2 when they have two turnovers. If the Patriots want to win, they need to add to that Tampa turnover total on Sunday.
Prediction: Tampa 23, Patriots 20
If you purchase a product or register for an account through a link on our site, we may receive compensation. By using this site, you consent to our User Agreement and agree that your clicks, interactions, and personal information may be collected, recorded, and/or stored by us and social media and other third-party partners in accordance with our Privacy Policy.