In his first head coaching gig, Dan Quinn inherited a 6-10 Atlanta Falcons and made solid progress in Year 1. He finished 8-8 in 2015, his first year in charge.
He built on that the following season, climbing all the way to 11-5 and a trip to the Super Bowl. Quinn made the divisional round of the playoffs in his third year, then slid back below .500 in 2018 and 2019. After beginning 2020 with five straight losses, he was fired.
It is not atypical for successful coaches to follow a similar pattern of steady rise and gradual decline. However, in his year and a half as head coach of the Washington Commanders, Quinn has supercharged the entire process.
The turnaround under his leadership last year was astonishing, taking a moribund 4-13 club to a 12-5 record and the conference championship game. The collapse of his club seems almost as remarkable.
Commanders have regressed considerably in Dan Quinn's second season
Since we are in the middle of it, perspective is impossible. And fans don’t know whether the coach will be able to pull his team out of its current freefall.
Consider the other coaches who took over teams alongside Quinn in 2024. There were seven in all. He was one of three with prior NFL head coaching experience.
Two of those coaches — Jim Harbaugh with the Los Angeles Chargers and Mike Macdonald with the Seattle Seahawks — had winning records like Quinn. Harbaugh was the only other new man to make the playoffs last year.
Two of the other members of that group are no longer with their teams. They had the two worst records last year. Jerod Mayo was fired immediately after his first season with the New England Patriots. The Tennessee Titans cut Brian Callahan loose after a 1-5 start this year.
Discounting Callahan, Quinn has the worst record in his second season out of the new coach cohort of 2024. Three of those coaches have winning records — including Dave Canales, who took his Carolina Panthers squad to 5-12 (up from 2-15) in his first year and now has them at 5-4 this year. Harbaugh and Macdonald have continued to build on their successful inaugural seasons.
The Falcons have been disappointing under Raheem Morris. After going 8-9 last year, much bigger things were expected in 2025, but they have stumbled to a 3-5 record. One of those wins, as Commanders’ fans know, was a thorough thrashing of Quinn’s team in Week 4. Washington surrendered 435 yards in that game, a warning of the defensive implosion that was to come.
With eight games remaining, the Commanders are likely to be favored in one, with two others being toss-ups. They will be clear underdogs in the other five. That in turn means that 6-11, or worse, is a very realistic outcome for the campaign.
Talk about whiplash — an eight-game improvement in his first year. A six-or-more game drop off in Year 2. What are fans to make of this roller coaster?
Injuries and luck are both largely uncontrollable factors. As fortunate as the team was last year, they have been cursed this season. But that isn't the only problem in Washington.
What Adam Peters needs to decide is whether the players he has assembled are not as good as we hoped, or whether the coaching staff he and Quinn have built is not getting the most out of them.
Or, perhaps, it is a bit of both.
This requires careful consideration. Why have highly-touted draft picks like Johnny Newton and Ben Sinnott failed to make a mark? Why has the offensive line seemed to regress despite some significant investment? Why has every defensive player suddenly forgotten how to tackle?
Washington has reached the point where they are not simply losing close games because of a bad bounce or questionable call. They have been manhandled in three straight games, and Quinn doesn’t seem to have an answer.
The franchise is in a much better place than it was under previous ownership in 2023. If Peters has made some mistakes, there’s a good chance the young front-office leader will learn from them and improve.
New ownership seems genuinely invested in confronting and solving problems. The previous group seemed interested in running and hiding — and in distracting with one amateurish stunt after another.
Hopefully, 2025 will prove to be a blip. A confounding blip, but a blip nonetheless.
The team still has talent and quality coaches. It has a quarterback. It should once again get things headed in a positive direction over the next few seasons, even if this one remains a veritable disaster.