As we’ve done in the past, below are the keys and my prediction of the Pittsburgh Steelers winning (or losing) today’s game. Three things that need to happen for them to end up on the right side of the score and vice versa in their Week 10 game against the Los Angeles Chargers.
My Steelers’ prediction is at the bottom.
The Steelers Will Win If…
1. Front Seven Wins Line Of Scrimmage
Los Angeles shares a similar style to Pittsburgh. Big and physical up front with two scoops of tight ends and a former defensive lineman turned fullback. No team runs as much power/gap scheme as the Chargers. Typically, these are games in which the Steelers’ defense thrives. This year, things have been more inconsistent. Pittsburgh has stepped up in the last two weeks against Green Bay and Indianapolis, but must replicate that tonight.
Payton Wilson and Patrick Queen must play downhill and with force, while Malik Harrison figures to see a healthy amount of snaps.
2. Chargers Don’t Hit Play-Action
If the Chargers get the run game going, and even if they don’t, play-action is a key part of their early-down offense. Especially on P/10 (the first play of a drive) and first and ten in general. Los Angeles will go max protect and look for vertical/crossing shots. Pittsburgh has to be disciplined, especially in the secondary, to avoid giving up those chunk plays.
Offenses don’t need a strong running game to make play-action work. They just need to sell it. The Chargers can. That often means big plays for one side. Either the offense finding open receivers or a defense able to create pressure and sacks. Without LT Joe Alt, there’s a real chance for Pittsburgh to rack up the hits.
3. Special Teams Makes More Splash
Forgotten in the conversation is special teams. The Chargers have leaked there. Last week, Tennessee Titans rookie WR Chimere Dike ran back a 67-yard punt for a touchdown against them. Of the 11 returns against them for the season, seven have been returned for at least 10 yards. Four have gone back for 20 or more.
Punter JK Scott ranks seventh in gross average (50.4) but just 22nd in net average (40.5). The nearly 10-yard delta between the two is the third-largest gap of any punter, only trailing Cincinnati’s Ryan Rehkow and Philadelphia’s Braden Mann.
Sunday marks a big opportunity for WR Ke’Shawn Williams to make a splash on primetime television.
The Steelers Will Lose If…
1. Chargers Defense Takes Away Quick Game
The biggest concern of this game is the fact that Los Angeles is a fast and hard-charging group. The Chargers take away the quick and perimeter passing game well. That’s been the Steelers’ bread and butter all season. Against Green Bay, the Packers’ athletic linebackers had success in keeping Pittsburgh’s offense in check. The concern is that Los Angeles does the same. Either Pittsburgh has to use scheme to create YAC, break a bunch of tackles, or find more downfield plays. The latter is ideal.
2. Defense Can’t Cover Skill Players
The Chargers’ offensive line is beat up, but there’s still plenty of talent to throw to. Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, Keenan Allen, and exciting rookie TE Oronde Gadsden II. That is a strong group with no weaknesses across the board. McConkey is quick, Johnston has size, Allen is a chain mover, and Gadsden is a vertical/seam threat.
With Jalen Ramsey still at safety, the rest of the Steelers’ corners are going to need to step up and make plays. It’s not going to be easy, and Herbert is a talented quarterback more than capable of getting his guys the football.
3. Offense Stalls In Red Zone
Good-on-good. That’s Pittsburgh’s red zone offense facing Los Angeles’ red zone defense. The Steelers rank seventh while the Chargers slot fourth. Something’s gotta give. Finishing drives has been the biggest improvement to the offense this season, but it won’t be easy against a Los Angeles team that has held teams to field goals instead of touchdowns. Whoever comes out on top here is likely to win the game.
Prediction
Steelers: 20
Chargers: 17
Season Prediction Record
2-6
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