Two of the NFL’s more surprising and exciting top teams are in action on Sunday afternoon when the New England Patriots visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
While some might have predicted a successful season for Tampa Bay, 6-2 is probably surpassing even the most optimistic expectations, especially when you consider all of the injuries they have dealt with.
On the other hand, almost nobody predicted that the Patriots would be 7-2 and leading the AFC East at the midway point of the season.
Both Drake Maye and Baker Mayfield have been mentioned in the MVP discussion in recent weeks, so it should be an exciting head-to-head matchup. The Buccaneers are a short home favorite at the top Massachusetts sportsbooks, which isn’t unexpected. How are we attacking this game from a betting perspective?
Patriots vs. Buccaneers predictions and best bets
Tampa Bay -2.5 (-110 odds at DraftKings)
Drake Maye over 241.5 passing yards (-114 odds at FanDuel)
Cade Otton over 4.5 receptions (-108 odds at DraftKings)
Sean Tucker Anytime TD (+475 odds at BetMGM)
This is an interesting matchup for a litany of reasons. One is the scheduling aspect.
The Buccaneers’ offense has looked bad the last two weeks as Baker Mayfield’s MVP campaign has hit a bump. They have two offensive touchdowns in their past two games, and Mayfield is completing 58% of his passes, averaging 190 yards per game. He’s been banged up, and his weapons and offensive line have been depleted due to injury.
While none of Bucky Irving, Mike Evans or Chris Godwin are near a return, the offensive line did get healthier, and they are expected to go from three back-up offensive linemen to just one on Sunday.
Meanwhile, the Patriots have played the easiest schedule in the NFL. They also have the easiest remaining schedule. This is viewed as the most challenging game on their schedule outside of the games against Buffalo.
Teams coming off a bye are 6-0 this season when playing a team that isn’t coming off a bye. The Patriots played last week, barely escaping an epic collapse against Atlanta. They lost Kayshon Boutte to injury, who’s arguably been their most impactful wide receiver.
As we reach November, we need to be aware of northern teams heading south. The transition from 40- to 50-degree weather to 80-degree weather isn’t easy. That’s another advantage for the Buccaneers. I think this is a good spot for Tampa, and I’m willing to lay less than a field goal.
With the Buccaneers’ offensive line getting healthier, it opens up the door for TE Cade Otton to get more involved. There’s a good chance that Christian Gonzalez follows Emeka Egbuka, which means the Buccaneers would have to look elsewhere in the passing attack. That group includes Otton, Sterling Shepard and Tez Johnson.
Otton’s role has grown, as he’s been targeted 25 times in the last four games. We like him to get five catches on Sunday.
Speaking of growing roles, RB Sean Tucker has been elevated to the No. 2 role with Irving injured. Starting RB Rachaad White played 55% of snaps in Week 8 and was stuffed three times from the 1-yard line. Tucker scored a 1-yard rushing touchdown later in the game. These are tremendous odds for an RB that plays almost 40% of snaps and might be securing the goal-line role.
On the Patriots’ side, expect Drake Maye to have success. He has gone over 240 yards in four of his last five games. Tampa Bay is much better against the run than it is against the pass. With Rhamondre Stevenson out, expect the Patriots to air it out. In recent weeks, this Buccaneers defense has allowed Sam Darnold and Mac Jones to both eclipse 300 yards.
Patriots vs. Buccaneers moneyline analysis
Why the Patriots can win as the underdog
Best odds:+122 at Caesars Sportsbook
New England is 7-2, and while they might be the benefactors of a weak schedule, there’s no denying they are a good team. This is a Tampa Bay team that, while 6-2, is far from dominant and usually plays close games.
Drake Maye continues to improve weekly, and the Patriots’ defense continues to improve under head coach Mike Vrabel. This isn’t an ideal scheduling spot for New England, but Tampa Bay remains depleted without most of its top offensive weapons.
Why the Buccaneers can win as the favorite
Best odds:-142 at DraftKings Sportsbook
The Buccaneers have the benefit of coming off a perfectly timed bye week. Teams coming off a bye are 6-0 this season when playing a team that isn’t coming off a bye. The impact of a week of rest might be underrated around the league. They got a little healthier on the offensive line and on defense.
Tampa’s 6-2 is more battle-tested than New England’s 7-2. Outside of Buffalo, New England’s most impressive victory is over Atlanta. We’ll learn a lot about the Patriots in this game.
It’s also a cold-weather team going south in the cold months. The 30-to-40-degree temperature change can cause conditioning issues.
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