In Chicago, the snow was falling. The Bears were rallying. The crowd was roaring. It felt like playoff football in every way, signaling a new phase of the NFL season.
People around the league will tell you things don’t truly heat up until Thanksgiving, when the pretenders and contenders separate and the battle for seeding comes into focus. But in Week 10, we saw plenty of teams make significant moves, including the Rams and Seahawks, who both earned divisional victories.
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In the AFC, we watched the Colts outlast the Falcons in overtime, while the Patriots pulled off an upset victory over the Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium. Meanwhile in Miami, the Dolphins engineered the shocker of the day, beating the Bills, 30–13, to drop Buffalo 1.5 games behind New England in the AFC East.
Let’s take a look at where the playoff picture stands, starting with Indianapolis and its continuing magic carpet ride.
AFC: Who’s In
Record: 8–2
Remaining opponents above .500: 5
Playoff probability: 98%
Indianapolis had to play in Berlin on Sunday against a gritty Falcons team that forced Daniel Jones into two turnovers while sacking him six times. Still, the Colts found a way to win with Jonathan Taylor rushing for 244 yards and three touchdowns. Now, Indy gets a bye week before visiting the Chiefs.
Record: 8–2
Remaining opponents above .500: 5
Playoff probability: 92%
Denver played one of the ugliest offensive games you’ll see on Thursday, but beat the Raiders to get to 8–2 while riding a seven-game winning streak. Next Sunday, the Broncos host the Chiefs in the biggest game they’ve played in a decade.
Record: 8–2
Remaining opponents above .500: 1
Playoff probability: 99%
The Patriots have primarily feasted on an easy schedule, but beating the Buccaneers on Sunday in Tampa Bay should raise eyebrows. Drake Maye had another great day outside of an end-zone interception, throwing for 270 yards and two touchdowns on 8.7 yards per attempt.
Record: 5–3
Remaining opponents above .500: 4
Playoff probability: 44%
The Steelers visit the Chargers on Sunday Night Football. This space will be updated after the game.
Record: 6–3
Remaining opponents above .500: 4
Playoff probability: 79%
The Chargers host the Steelers on Sunday Night Football. This space will be updated after the game.
Record: 6–3
Remaining opponents above .500: 4
Playoff probability: 92%
No team had a more shocking loss this weekend than the Bills. After beating the Chiefs in Week 9, Buffalo went to Miami and completely fell apart, losing 30–13 while Josh Allen suffered a pair of turnovers. As alarming as the Dolphins’ average of 7.0 yards per play was, they moved against Buffalo’s defense at will.
Record: 5–4
Remaining opponents above .500: 4
Playoff probability: 39%
Jacksonville remains in the playoff picture after losing to the Texans, but its playoff chances took a massive hit in the meltdown at Houston. The Jaguars led 29–10 in the fourth quarter, only to get smoked in the final 15 minutes, allowing 26 unanswered points to fall to 5–4. Going forward, Jacksonville hosts the Chargers before must-win games against the Titans and Cardinals.
NFC: Who’s In
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle celebrated a big win over the Cardinals at home on Sunday. / Steven Bisig-Imagn Images
Record: 7–2
Remaining opponents above .500: 4
Playoff probability: 91%
Seattle continues to look dominant, jumping out to a 38–7 first-half lead over the Cardinals before improving its record to 7–2. The Seahawks got two defensive scores to help bury Arizona, and now prepare to travel to Los Angeles to face the Rams in what could be the biggest game of their season.
Record: 6–2
Remaining opponents above .500: 5
Playoff probability: 98%
Philadelphia takes on Green Bay on Monday Night Football before hosting the Lions in another huge conference matchup.
Record: 5–2–1
Remaining opponents above .500: 4
Playoff probability: 88%
Green Bay hosts Philadelphia on Monday night at Lambeau Field, with the Packers then visiting the Giants on a short week.
Record: 6–3
Remaining opponents above .500: 2
Playoff probability: 93%
Tampa Bay had a chance to come off its bye and earn a quality win at home against the Patriots. Instead, the defense was gashed for 435 yards in a 28–23 defeat. Baker Mayfield threw for 273 yards and three touchdowns but it wasn’t enough. Tampa Bay goes on the road next week to Buffalo.
Record: 7–2
Remaining opponents above .500: 4
Playoff probability: 94%
Los Angeles might be the best team in football when not beating itself. Heck, if the Rams could kick a field goal, they’d be 9–0. Still, Sean McVay’s team is coming off a 42–26 win over the Niners and now gears up for a home date with the NFC-best Seahawks.
Record: 6–3
Remaining opponents above .500: 5
Playoff probability: 77%
The Lions hammered the Commanders on Sunday, winning 44–22 behind 320 passing yards and three touchdown passes from Jared Goff. Detroit plays the Eagles next weekend in a game that could go a long way toward determining home-field advantage in the NFC.
Record: 6–3
Remaining opponents above .500: 6
Playoff probability: 32%
Chicago has flirted with disaster the past two weekends, going into the final two minutes trailing both the Bengals and Giants. Yet the Bears have rallied both times, running their record to 6–3 and finding themselves in the playoff picture. The schedule isn’t easy, though, with games against the Eagles, 49ers, Lions and Packers twice remaining on the docket.
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