We’re three weeks into the season and the team is starting to show what it can do. The challenge will be living up to that potential over the grind of a full season.
Injuries will happen, that’s part of life, and this team will feel it. Jalen Green made his first appearance in Week 3 and it was electric. He was exciting, alive on the court, and then before the paint dried, he tweaked the hamstring that kept him out for the first eight games. That’s a reminder. This team is fun, but fragile.
For now, Week 3, you can’t help but enjoy watching them play. They are everything the teams of last year and the year before weren’t. Sure, they won games because of talent, but there was no fire, no passion, no coach who could make adjustments on the fly. All of that is different this season, and it makes watching them addictive.
Are they winning a championship? No. Are they making the playoffs? Tough in the Western Conference. But every night, they’re entertaining. I’m locked in, paying attention to every possession. Normally I’m neck-deep in fantasy football, sweating over transactions, but I don’t give two shits about that right now. I’m all Suns, all the time, and I’m loving it.
Week 3 ended with a 2–1 record against key division rivals. I’ll take it. I’ll savor it. And I’ll try to remember it when Week 15 is chaos. But right now, I’ll live in the present. The past and future don’t matter. Right now, this is a fun version of Suns basketball.
Week 3 Record: 2-1
@ Golden State Warriors, L, 118-107
Possession Differential: +0.2
Turnover Differential: -2
Offensive Rebounding Differential: +8
The Suns came back down to earth against Golden State, and it happened the same night the Warriors’ role players caught fire from deep. The Suns won the possession battle and crashed the glass well, but when you’re -21 from three, there’s only so much you can do.
Credit to them, though. They fought back, but it wasn’t enough.
vs. Los Angeles Clippers, W, 115-102
Possession Differential: +4.2
Turnover Differential: 0
Offensive Rebounding Differential: +4
This was a coming out party for Jalen Green, the first real look at him as part of the team. He didn’t disappoint.
There were a few errant shots here and there, moments that needed work, but he was electric and clearly enjoying himself. The team handled turnovers better, grabbed more boards despite being undersized, and ran more possessions. It all added up to a solid win for the team.
@ Los Angeles Clippers, W, 114-103
Possession Differential: +0.3
Turnover Differential: -1
Offensive Rebounding Differential: +8
But the good Lord gives it, and the good Lord takes it away. Kudos to the team for staying resilient after losing Jalen Green. They kept fighting, and even while undersized, they dominated the offensive glass.
That has been a key to their early success this year. Strong work on the offensive boards has shown up in their victories.
Inside the Possession Game
Weekly Possession Differential: +4.7
Weekly Turnover Differential: +3
Offensive Rebounding Differential: +20
Year-to-Date Over/Under .500: Even
A solid week for the team, as for the first time this season they controlled more possessions than their opponents. Turnovers were still a little high, but the biggest shift is in offensive rebounding. Let’s look at that graphic, Vanna.
They flipped the script completely, finishing the week at +20 in offensive rebounds. That includes two games against an All-NBA center in Ivica Zubac. That tells you this team is crashing the glass, chasing second chances, trying to extend possessions.
The next step is turning those extra opportunities into points. That’s the point of tracking possessions.
The Suns are generating chances, but execution is the question. In Week 3, they grabbed 14.7 offensive rebounds per game, seventh in the NBA, but turned them into only 18.0 second-chance points per night, 10th in the league. Step one is winning the boards, step two is finishing.
The same story shows up in turnovers. The Suns averaged 10.7 steals per night, fourth in the NBA, but points off turnovers lagged at 17.0, 20th in the league. Opportunities are there. Now the team needs to turn them into results.
Week 4 Preview
What’s ahead for the team as they enter week four of the NBA season? Four games on the schedule, three of them at home.
The week starts against the New Orleans Pelicans. They began the season 0–6, but have won two of three in their last stretch. Notably, Zion Williamson has missed all three of those games. Injuries are nothing new for New Orleans, and it shows.
Next up is Wednesday in Dallas against a Mavericks team struggling in the Western Conference. They are 3–7 and trying to figure out Cooper Flagg. The rookie phenom has spent 32% of his minutes at point guard, which doesn’t maximize his skill set. Add in the fact that Anthony Davis and Kyrie Irving are sidelined, and the Mavericks are limping along.
The Suns return home Thursday to face the Indiana Pacers. The defending Eastern Conference champs are reeling without Tyrese Haliburton, who tore his ACL in game seven of the Finals. Indiana is 1–9 and clearly feeling the absence of their star guard.
Week four wraps up Sunday against the Atlanta Hawks. Currently 5–5 and ninth in the East, Atlanta’s offense ranks 20th overall, but their defense is sharp. That’s the side of the floor to watch.
Last week, most of the community predicted a 2–1 result. Props to the 49% who got it right. And four people actually believed the team would lose every game? Oh ye of so little faith.
Week 4 will be telling. How will the Suns fare against the Pelicans, Mavericks, Pacers, and Hawks?