Leeds United manager Daniel Farke has insisted that his return so far in the Premier League has the club on track for safety.
United’s return to the Premier League has been incredibly up and down so far. Defeat away at the City Ground on Sunday is the lowest the mood has been since promotion.
Nottingham Forest’s shoddy start to the campaign could have been given a massive boost by Leeds’ tepid and disorganised showing, while placing Daniel Farke under even more pressure.
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Daniel Farke calls for calm as he makes bold Leeds Unites survival claim
Farke wasn’t exactly going to come out after the Forest defeat and say that United are doomed for relegation. He’s always been one for a calm head, and Sunday was no different.
When looking at the first 11 games of this season so far, the German remains positive that it’s been enough to suggest United can stay up.
“Everyone has the right to be a bit critical, we’ve conceded three goals in the last two away games. We could have made our life more easy at some points. We have to return back to our best behaviour in terms of defending like the start of the season when we were really good,” he told the YEP. “I didn’t expect before the season started and with how the transfer window turned out that it would be an easy smooth ride this season, never in danger.
Daniel Farke was defiant about Leeds United in his post-match press conference. (Action Images via Reuters/Andrew Boyers)
“We have 11 games, 11 points, the points average we need to stay in this league, we’ve never been in the relegation zone. Could have been better but if I’m honest, in my dream version we cruise easily and right now it’s all a bit tighter but it’s nothing making us panic. We’re quite calm. We had a difficult run of games with three away games in the last four games. We know we’re a bit more likely to win our home games. We want to win points in away games and have to return back to more defensive stability, more than we’ve shown in the last two games.”
Daniel Farke neglects to acknowledge important elephant in the room on Leeds United’s fixtures
Yes, Farke is right. United are on a point per game, which would leave us accruing 38 over the course of the season. That should, in theory, be a run-rate that secures survival.
But, there’s a very obvious problem that Farke is neglecting to mention. Leeds probably aren’t going to keep up that point-per-game ratio from now until the New Year:
Date Fixture League position
23rd November Aston Villa (H) 6th
29th November Manchester City (A) 2nd
3rd December Chelsea (H) 3rd
6th December Liverpool (H) 8th
14th December Brentford (A) 12th
21st December Crystal Palace (H) 10th
28th December Sunderland (A) 4th
1st January Liverpool (A) 8th
To maintain a point-per-game rate, Leeds would be looking for eight points from their next eight games. That would take us to 19 into 2026 and the January transfer window.
Can you feasibly see Leeds picking up two wins and two draws from that set of fixtures, based on our current performances?
It would take an incredibly optimistic outlook to see those sorts of results. You’re relying on home form, which Farke alludes to quite strongly. And even then, you’ll need to beat at least one of Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool or Crystal Palace.
Should Farke maintain 1.00PPG by January, he’ll have overcome several massive faults that he’s currently exhibiting in our performances.
My worry is that the 49ers are willing to stand by his comments on points-per-game, and his subliminal projection of survival. Therefore, I worry that we wait too long to pull the trigger, because if this run goes as expected, there’s every chance we’ve been leapfrogged by three of the four teams sitting below us.
Read more: BBC and Opta share Leeds United’s relegation chances after Nottingham Forest…